RADAR CHECK: Rain continues to increase across Alabama this afternoon ahead of a dynamic weather system that will bring a variety of threats tonight and Tuesday morning.

WIND: Gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) will gust to 45-50 mph in spots statewide through early Tuesday morning. The highest winds will come from around 8 this evening through 6 a.m. Tuesday. This will bring potential for downed trees and power outages. A high wind warning has been issued for southern Mobile and Baldwin counties; a wind advisory is in effect for the rest of Alabama.

SEVERE STORMS: The main threat of severe thunderstorms is in an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) area of south Alabama late tonight into Tuesday morning. A strong tornado (EF-2 or higher) is initially possible across Mobile, Baldwin, Washington, Escambia and Covington counties, and then eastward into Coffee, Geneva, Houston, Henry and Barbour counties in the 4 to 9 a.m. time frame.

Those of you in south Alabama, especially south of a line from Millry to Evergreen to Abbeville, need to be sure you have a reliable way of hearing warnings in the middle of the night — never an outdoor siren. The preferred method is a NOAA Weather Radio. Be sure your smartphone is not in “do not disturb” mode.

The risk of severe storms north of the line from Millry to Evergreen to Abbeville is limited due to the lack of surface-based instability. The northern half of Alabama will just see rain.

RAIN: Amounts of 2-3 inches are likely through Tuesday, and some flooding is possible.Rain tapers off statewide Tuesday morning; the day will be mostly cloudy and still windy, with gusts to 30 mph possible during the afternoon. Temperatures will likely fall through the 40s over the northern two-thirds of the state as colder air arrives.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Dry weather is the story on these two days with highs in the 50s and 60s.

FRIDAY: Another dynamic system will bring more wind and rain to Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center has the southern two-thirds of the state in a severe weather risk; it looks like unstable air will extend farther north into the state for this event.

Gradient winds will also be strong Friday, and rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be windy and sharply colder; temperatures will likely hold in the 30s over the northern quarter of Alabama, with 40s to the south. Temperatures should be well below freezing by Sunday morning. The weekend will be dry.

NEXT WEEK: Global models are suggesting a weather system has potential to bring some “winter mischief” to parts of Alabama Monday (freezing rain or snow). But this will change multiple times over the next few days, and confidence in any specific outcome is very low. However, confidence is high the coldest air so far this winter season will roll into Alabama by Tuesday and Wednesday. This could get many places in the teens over the northern half of the state.ON THIS DATE IN 1988: Huntsville had 9.6 inches of snow on the ground following a big winter storm.

ON THIS DATE IN 2019: A tornado affected Cortland, Ohio, during the midmorning. The EF-1 tornado developed northeast of Champion Township in Trumbull County and moved east, bringing down numerous trees and wires along the 4.5-mile path.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.