James Spann forecasts a dry Thursday for Alabama, with possibly severe daytime storms on Friday from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

DRY TODAY: With a partly to mostly sunny sky, we project highs between 60 and 65 degrees for much of Alabama this afternoon — a very pleasant winter day. Clouds will move in tonight ahead of a dynamic storm system.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY: The Storm Prediction Center maintains an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for parts of east, central and southeast Alabama Friday. A slight risk (level 2) extends as far north as Winfield, Oneonta and Gadsden, and a marginal risk (level 1) is up for the northern third of the state.

The big question concerns the northward extent of unstable air; for now, we believe the highest risk of severe storms will be along and south of I-20, over the southern two-thirds of Alabama. Here are the key messages:

• This will be a daytime event. The risk opens up around 9 a.m. for the western counties; storms should be out of the state by 4-5 p.m.
• Storms that form Friday will be capable of producing strong, damaging straight-line winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado (EF-2 or higher) is possible in the enhanced risk area.
• Gradient winds (non-thunderstorm) will gust to 35-45 mph Friday, and a wind advisory is in effect. It won’t be as intense as Monday night, but a few weakened trees could come down along with some power outages.
• Rain amounts will be less than 1 inch, and flooding is not expected.

As always, be sure you have a reliable way of hearing warnings (never an outdoor siren), and in your safe place have helmets for everyone. If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter and how to get there quickly, and have transportation arranged.

THE WEEKEND: The weather will be dry and colder over the weekend. Morning lows will be between 23 and 32 degrees, with highs in the 40s over north Alabama and 50s for the southern counties Saturday and Sunday.

ARCTIC BLAST NEXT WEEK: The coldest air so far this season rolls into the Deep South early next week. Global models continue to hint at the potential for some wintry precipitation over the northern half of Alabama Monday night into Tuesday morning. It remains too early to be specific, and we still can’t tell you whether we will have travel or other impacts; once we get the system out of here Friday we can focus on Monday and Tuesday with a higher-confidence forecast.

We can tell you with confidence it will be very cold next week. Most of the state will stay below freezing all day Tuesday, and by Wednesday morning lows will drop into the 10- to 15-degree range over the northern half of the state, with teens all the way down to near I-10. This will be similar to the cold wave we experienced in December 2022.

ON THIS DATE IN 1918: A powerful area of low pressure brought snow and bitterly cold temperatures to Chattanooga, Tennessee; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Shreveport, Louisiana. Birmingham picked up an inch of snow. In far southeastern Alabama, an estimated F3 tornado damaged virtually every building in the town of Webb. It leveled a rural school, killing one teacher and seven students.

ON THIS DATE IN 2021: Accumulating snow affected Pickens, Lamar, Fayette, Walker, Marion and Winston counties in west Alabama. Reported snow totals were generally 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts up to 3 inches.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.