VERY PLEASANT WINTER DAY: Temperatures are in the 60s across Alabama this afternoon with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of an approaching storm system.

FRIDAY: The Storm Prediction Center made some significant changes to Friday’s severe weather outlook for Alabama on the midday update. We now have an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms across the northwest part of the state, with a slight risk (level 2) elsewhere.

The lack of surface-based instability is the primary reason for the change; the overall tornado threat has been lowered. The enhanced risk across northwest Alabama is for potential for strong winds with a line of storms that will pass through that part of the state Friday morning.

Here are the key messages:

• This will be a daytime event. The risk opens up around 9 a.m. for the western counties; storms should be out of the state by 3-4 p.m.
• Storms that form Friday will be capable of producing strong, damaging straight-line winds, large hail and a few isolated tornadoes. The core threat of isolated tornadoes is south of I-20, where instability will be higher.
• Gradient winds (non-thunderstorm) will gust to 35-45 mph, and a wind advisory is in effect. It won’t be as intense as Monday night, but a few weakened trees could come down along with some power outages.
• Rain amounts will be less than 1 inch, and flooding is not expected.

As always, be sure you have a reliable way of hearing warnings (never an outdoor siren), and in your safe place have helmets for everyone. If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter and how to get there quickly, and have transportation arranged.

THE WEEKEND: The weather will be dry and colder over the weekend. Morning lows will be between 23 and 32 degrees, with highs in the 40s over north Alabama and 50s for the southern counties Saturday and Sunday.

ARCTIC BLAST NEXT WEEK: The coldest air so far this season rolls into the Deep South early next week. Global models continue to suggest some accumulating snow is possible over the northern third of Alabama Monday afternoon, Monday night and early Tuesday morning. It is still too early for a specific forecast of any potential accumulation or travel impact; once we get Friday’s system out of here, we can focus on this event.We can tell you with confidence it will be very cold next week. Most of the state will stay well below freezing all day Tuesday, and by Wednesday morning lows will drop into the 10- to 15-degree range over the northern half of the state, with teens all the way down to near I-10. Some communities across the Tennessee Valley could drop into the single digits. This will be similar to the cold wave we experienced in December 2022.ON THIS DATE IN 1918: A powerful area of low pressure brought snow and bitterly cold temperatures to Chattanooga, Tennessee; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Shreveport, Louisiana. Birmingham picked up an inch of snow. In far southeastern Alabama, an estimated F3 tornado damaged virtually every building in the town of Webb. It leveled a rural school, killing one teacher and seven students.

ON THIS DATE IN 2021: Accumulating snow affected Pickens, Lamar, Fayette, Walker, Marion and Winston counties in west Alabama. Reported snow totals were generally 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts up to 3 inches.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.