James Spann forecasts rain, storms for Alabama today and tonight from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY: Light rain is falling early this morning over the northern third of the state; otherwise, the sky is mostly cloudy with temperatures generally in the 60s.

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL: Rain becomes more widespread across Alabama this afternoon and tonight, with the potential for strong thunderstorms. We believe the main risk of severe storms will be across far south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, along and south of a line from Grove Hill to Evergreen to Headland. A few isolated severe storms are possible as far north as U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika).

The window for severe storms opens up around noon across far southwest Alabama, with the storms progressing eastward during the afternoon and evening. They should be out of the southeast corner of the state by 2 a.m.

Storms over south Alabama this afternoon and tonight will be capable of producing strong, possibly damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes. As always, have a reliable way of hearing severe weather warnings and have a good plan.

For the northern half of Alabama there will be no surface-based instability, and the chance of severe thunderstorms is very low.

RAIN AMOUNTS: The good news is that the amount of rain expected over the northern half of the state is now much lower, generally 1 inch or less. The heaviest rain will be over south Alabama, where amounts around 2 inches are likely. A flash flood watch remains in effect there.

GRADIENT WIND: Non-thunderstorm winds will ramp up statewide today, gusting as high as 35-40 mph in spots. There is also the chance a “wake low” forms on the back edge of the big rain mass this evening, which could lead to higher gusts due to the tight gradient.

Thursday will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler, with a few lingering showers; the highs will be in the 60s for most communities. The best chance of seeing some sun is over the southern third of the state.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather will be dry with sunny days and fair nights. The high will be in the low 70s Friday, followed by 80-degree warmth Saturday and Sunday. The coolest morning will come Saturday, with lows in the 40s.

NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge will set the stage for the warmest week so far this year, with daily highs between 80 and 85 degrees. The ridge will also keep the big rain producers west and north of the Deep South; the week looks dry.

ON THIS DATE IN 1979: This day was known as “Terrible Tuesday” to the residents of Wichita Falls, Texas, as a tornado rated F4 on the Fujita scale ripped through the city. A massive F4 tornado smashed into Wichita Falls, killing 43 people and causing $300 million in damage. Another tornado struck Vernon, Texas, killing 11 people.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.