RADAR CHECK: We have a large mass of rain over southeast Alabama early this morning; the rest of the state is dry with temperatures in the 60s. We expect showers and thunderstorms to form this afternoon and tonight, more numerous over the northern counties. Some of the storms could be strong, with gusty winds and small hail, but the overall severe weather risk is low. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5).

The high today will be between 76 and 81 degrees; the average high for Birmingham on May 14 is 82.

Much of Alabama will be dry Wednesday with intervals of sun, but a few showers will be possible over the Tennessee Valley — nothing widespread or heavy. The high will be in the low 80s for most communities with a mix of sun and clouds.

Thursday will be dry and warm. With a partly to mostly sunny sky, the high will rise into the mid to upper 80s.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Another disturbance will bring rain into Alabama and the Deep South during the day Friday. At this point it looks like most of the rain will come Friday afternoon, Friday night and into Saturday morning. The heaviest rain will likely be over the southern half of the state, and the overall severe weather risk looks fairly low. Much of the rain will likely be east of Alabama Saturday afternoon as drier air begins to push in from the west. The highs Friday and Saturday will be close to 80 degrees.

Sunday looks dry; with ample sunshine, temperatures reach the mid 80s by afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge will build over the Gulf Coast region, and the latest global model data suggests much of the week will be warm and dry, with highs in the upper 80s most days. Some spots will see 90-degree heat.

ON THIS DATE IN 1923: An early-morning, violent estimated F5 tornado cut a 45-mile path of destruction through Howard and Mitchell counties in Texas. Twenty-three people lost their lives and 250 suffered injuries. The path width reached 1.5 miles at one point, and entire farms were “wiped off the face of the earth.” The First Baptist Church in Colorado City, Texas, became an emergency hospital for tornado victims.

ON THIS DATE IN 1990: Thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwest Texas to western Missouri. Severe thunderstorms spawned 17 tornadoes, including nine in Texas. Four tornadoes in Texas injured nine people. Thunderstorms in Texas also produced hail 4 inches in diameter at Shamrock and 4½ inches in diameter near Guthrie.

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