Possible active hurricane season for Alabama begins June 1
The National Hurricane Center is predicting that as many as 13 hurricanes could form in the Atlantic basin this season. (NOAA)
Experts are predicting an active hurricane season for the Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico on Alabama’s borders.
NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including between four and seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher).
The official season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30, with the peak of the season in August and September when ocean temperatures are highest.
Forecasters say there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
(NOAA)
Near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean combined with development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific (after the strongest El Niños ever observed), reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear combine to favor tropical storm formation, NOAA said.
Alabama meteorologist James Spann, who provides weather forecasts to Alabama News Center, has gone on record that he’s not a big fan of the hurricane outlook before the season begins, primarily because it can cause Gulf Coast residents to let their guard down if it’s not considered to be an active season.
“Your preparation every season should be the same,” Spann said of those living on the coast. “If it’s one hurricane in the entire season and it hits your town, it’s a big season.”
Since 1980, NOAA said there have been 20 hurricanes and four tropical storms that have been billion-dollar disaster events affecting Alabama, when adjusted for inflation. The last one was Hurricane Nicholas in September 2021.
The Alabama National Guard has conducted its hurricane exercises in preparation for the season. The Alabama Emergency Management Agency has also undergone training and preparations.
Alabama Power has also made preparations for the season and shared tips for the public to be better prepared.
Find more preparation tips here.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.
(NOAA)
