THIS MORNING: Most of Alabama is dry this morning with a mostly cloudy sky. The weather over the next 48 hours will be directly related to Hurricane Francine, which will make landfall this afternoon or this evening on the coast of Louisiana southwest of Baton Rouge and west of New Orleans.

Early this morning Francine has sustained winds of 90 mph and is centered about 245 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana. It is moving northeast at 10 mph.

The structure of Francine could allow for some additional short-term strengthening this morning over the very warm Gulf waters, and this is reflected in the updated National Hurricane Center forecast. Southwesterly shear is expected to increase over the hurricane later today, and interaction with an upper trough should cause drier air to wrap around the southern portion of Francine as it nears the coast. Thus, the hurricane is not expected to continue strengthening through landfall. Winds should be 95-100 mph at the time the center reaches the Louisiana coast.

Alabama will be on the wet, unsettled east side of the system. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Alabama Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 2-4 feet is forecast for the Gulf Coast of Mobile and Baldwin counties, and Mobile Bay as well.

More about the impact for Alabama tonight and Thursday:

GRADIENT WIND: Winds could gust as high as 50-55 mph along the Alabama Gulf Coast late this afternoon and tonight. For inland parts of Alabama, gusts to 35-40 mph are possible Thursday as the circulation of Francine moves northward through Mississippi. A wind advisory will most likely be needed.

RAIN: Rain amounts over Mobile and Baldwin counties will be 2-4 inches, with 1-3 inches for the rest of the state. Heavier totals will likely be over the western counties. A flash flood watch is in effect for Mobile, Baldwin and Washington counties in southwest Alabama.

TORNADOES: A few brief, isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out across the state; the Storm Prediction Center has defined a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for southwest Alabama late today and tonight. On Thursday there is a slight risk for a broad zone from Birmingham to Montgomery to Dothan. The rest of the state is in a marginal risk (level 1).

Tornadoes associated with tropical systems are usually low-topped and short-lived. This makes it very difficult to provide a warning with a long lead time, so be very weather aware tonight and Thursday and pay attention to warnings.

The weather will improve along the Gulf Coast during the day Thursday as Francine moves northward. However, a high rip-current danger will be in place across the central Gulf Coast through Friday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The remnant circulation of Francine will likely stall and dissipate northwest of Alabama, and this means some risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms daily Friday through Sunday. This won’t be a continuous rain, and the sun will be out at times. Highs will be in the low 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Scattered showers remain possible Monday, but global models are now trended toward a drier forecast for the rest of the week. Highs will be in the 80s.

TROPICS: A trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

The National Hurricane Center gives this an 80% chance of development, but it is far from land, and it remains to be seen whether any land will be affected.

ON THIS DATE IN 1961: Hurricane Carla made landfall on the northeast part of Matagorda Island, Texas, as a strong Category 4 storm.

ON THIS DATE IN 1992: Hurricane Iniki struck the island of Kaua’i with winds of 145 mph and a central pressure of 27.91 inches of mercury, making it a Category 4 hurricane. Iniki is the strongest hurricane to strike Hawaii in recent history.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.