THIS AFTERNOON: The sky is partly to mostly sunny across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures between 77 and 82 degrees. The sky becomes mostly cloudy late tonight with a low in the 60s.

Moisture will increase in coming days, and we will bring in a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and each day through Friday as a surface front stalls out just to the northwest. Rain distribution won’t be even; any one spot will see a 40-50% chance of rain each day. Highs will be mostly in the upper 70s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: There is a huge amount of uncertainty due to model differences in handling the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The American Global Forecast System suggests Saturday will bring widespread, beneficial rain, while the European global model shows little rain as it keeps the tropical system far to the southwest. We will have much better clarity over the next 36-48 hours; for now, we will mention a chance of rain Saturday, with a trend toward drier weather Sunday. Highs over the weekend will be in the 70s.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean, about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. Winds are 45 mph.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast track brings it over the western tip of Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday, and into the southern Gulf of Mexico Thursday. From there, weakening is likely in the northern Gulf due to cooler sea-surface temperatures and stronger winds aloft, producing shear. The system will have potential to bring beneficial rain to parts of the southern U.S. by Friday night and Saturday, but it is still too early to know where the highest rain coverage will be. We will have much better clarity in the next 24-36 hours.

ON THIS DATE IN 1935: A Category 2 storm called the Yankee Hurricane affected the Bahamas and south Florida. The storm remains the only tropical cyclone to hit Miami from the northeast in November.

ON THIS DATE IN 1985: The remnants of tropical storm Juan dropped 10 to 19 inches of rain on West Virginia and surrounding states, causing 62 deaths. A maximum rainfall amount of 19.77 inches was recorded near Montebello in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia. The flood in West Virginia was considered the worst in the state’s history.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.