RADAR CHECK: Scattered showers continue across Alabama this afternoon; otherwise, we have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures between 77 and 82 degrees. Dothan has reached 85 degrees and is the warmest spot in the state. Tonight will be mostly cloudy, and we will maintain the chance of showers.

There will be some chance of scattered showers and storms daily for the rest of the week, but rain distribution will be uneven. We won’t see much sun; highs will remain in the mid to upper 70s for most places.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We are starting to get better model agreement concerning the tropical system in the Gulf, Rafael. It will slow down over the northern Gulf and weaken quickly due to shear, cooler water and dry air. There’s a decent chance it will dissipate before reaching the U.S. coast, but even a remnant low can bring enhanced rain chances.

We will mention periods of rain in the Alabama forecast both Saturday and Sunday with an increase in tropical moisture and the stalled front to the west. The amount of rain will be determined by the condition and location of the tropical low if it is close to Alabama. Highs will be in the 70s.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Rafael, with winds of 70 mph, is about 105 miles east of Grand Cayman. The system is moving northwest at 15 mph.

The National Hurricane Center forecast has Rafael coming over western Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday, followed by rapid weakening over the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week. It is forecast to be just south of the Louisiana coast Sunday, where it could dissipate before moving inland.

FOOTBALL: For the Alabama-LSU game in Baton Rouge Saturday (6:30 p.m. kickoff), the sky will be mostly cloudy with showers possible during the game. The amount and duration of rain will be determined by the track and timing of the tropical system in the northern Gulf of Mexico. While it will be dissipating, it still could bring a deeper layer of tropical moisture into southeast Louisiana Saturday. For now, we are not expecting it to rain all night, but showers are certainly possible during the game. Watch for forecast changes as we get closer to the weekend.

ON THIS DATE IN 1991: Nearly 3,000 people were killed in the Philippines when Tropical Storm Thelma produced massive flooding. The storm was the second major disaster of the year after Mount Pinatubo violently erupted on June 12.

ON THIS DATE IN 2002: An F2 tornado moved through Abbeville in southeast Alabama. Several homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed; one person was killed and 20 others injured. Abbeville High School was destroyed.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.