SHOWERS TODAY: We note some light rain and sprinkles across parts of Alabama early this morning as moisture levels begin to rise across the southern U.S. and a front approaches from the west. We will mention the chance of scattered showers today, but rain amounts will be light and spotty. The sky will be occasionally cloudy, and the high will be between 77 and 82 degrees, well above average for early November.

There will be some chance of showers and storms daily for the rest of the week, but rain distribution will be uneven. We won’t see much sun. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 70s for most places.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Forecast confidence remains very low thanks to huge model differences concerning the tropical system in the Gulf, Rafael. The American Global Forecast System brings a weak tropical low into the central Gulf Coast with potential for a widespread, beneficial rain for Alabama Saturday. However, the reliable European global model shows the system far to the southwest, moving generally toward Mexico or far south Texas.

We will continue to mention a good chance of rain Saturday, but the amount we receive depends on how the tropical situation evolves. The weather will trend drier Sunday; highs over the weekend will be in the 70s.

TROPICS: This morning Tropical Storm Rafael, with winds of 60 mph, is about 105 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. The system is moving northwest at 13 mph.

The National Hurricane Center forecast has Rafael coming over western Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday, followed by rapid weakening over the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week. It is forecast to be south of the Louisiana coast Friday night, but forecast uncertainty remains high due to the wide range of model solutions.

FOOTBALL: It remains to be seen how Rafael will affect the Alabama-LSU game in Baton Rouge Saturday night. The best possible case is a dry, pleasant evening with temperatures falling into the 60s; the worst case is a soaking tropical rain. For now, we will mention just a chance of showers. Forecast confidence will increase in coming days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1991: Nearly 3,000 people were killed in the Philippines when Tropical Storm Thelma produced massive flooding. The storm was the second major disaster of the year after Mount Pinatubo violently erupted on June 12.

ON THIS DATE IN 2002: An F2 tornado moved through Abbeville in southeast Alabama. Several homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed; one person was killed and 20 others injured. Abbeville High School was destroyed.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.