WARM, SHOWERY WEATHER: A stalled surface front is near the Mississippi River this morning, and moisture levels will continue to increase across Alabama today. We will mention a chance of scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm through tonight. The day will feature more clouds than sun with a high not too far from 80 degrees. The average high for Birmingham on Nov. 6 is 68.

The overall pattern won’t change much through the weekend. There will be some risk of showers daily through Sunday, but rain distribution will be uneven due to the scattered nature of the rain. A rumble of thunder is possible at times. Average rain amounts from today through the weekend will be around 1 inch, but the range is from a quarter inch to 2 inches. This won’t break the drought, but it is a start. Temperatures will remain above average, with highs between 77 and 82 degrees; lows will be in the 60s.

The tropical system in the Gulf will stay to the south and won’t directly affect Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: The weather trends drier as the upper ridge rebuilds; much of the week will be rain-free with highs in the 70s.TROPICS: Hurricane Rafael, with sustained winds of 90 mph, is about 120 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth this morning, moving northwest at 14 mph. It will cross the western part of Cuba later today and emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

We are getting much better model agreement this morning, and the National Hurricane Center track has been adjusted southward. Rafael will encounter strong winds aloft, dry air and cooler sea-surface temperatures by the weekend, which should induce rapid weakening, and there is a good chance it will be sheared apart before reaching any part of the U.S. coast.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Scattered showers are possible for the high school football playoff games across Alabama Friday night, but nothing heavy or widespread. The sky will be mostly cloudy with temperatures falling through the 70s.

On Saturday, UAB will host UConn at Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham (1:30 p.m. kickoff); expect a mix of sun and clouds with a passing shower possible during the game. Temperatures will hover between 78 and 81 degrees.

Alabama will be in Baton Rouge to take on LSU (6:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be cloudy with a few periods of rain possible during the game; temperatures will fall slowly through the 70s.

ON THIS DATE IN 1885: A strong, violent tornado moved through Dallas County, passing just west of Selma. Thirteen people were killed, and more than 400 others were injured.

ON THIS DATE IN 1977: Several possible causes led to the collapse of the Kelly Barnes Dam in Georgia. The failure allowed a 40-acre lake to flood Toccoa Falls College, killing 39 people and injuring 60 more.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.