RADAR CHECK: Most of Alabama is rain-free this afternoon; we note just a few showers around Mobile Bay. With a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures are in the upper 70s and low 80s. Huntsville reached 84 degrees at 2 p.m.; that is a new record high for Nov. 7 (the old record was 82, set last in 2023). The sky becomes mostly cloudy late tonight, but showers will remain few and far between.

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible both Saturday and Sunday. The chance of rain for any one community is 30-40% Saturday and 50-60% Sunday, but the rain distribution will be uneven, and it certainly isn’t the kind of rain that will break a drought. The high will be near 80 Saturday, followed by low to mid 70s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Global models are not in good agreement about the weather situation next week, making for a low-confidence forecast. We will mention the chance of a few isolated showers Monday and Tuesday. A cold front has potential to bring a more meaningful risk of rain by Wednesday or Thursday, followed by a change to much cooler air. Highs drop into the 60s by the end of the week, with lows down in the 40s.

TROPICS: Hurricane Rafael, with winds of 105 mph, is about 260 miles west/northwest of Havana, Cuba, this afternoon in the southeast Gulf of Mexico. It is moving to the west/northwest at 9 mph.

A ridge over the northern Gulf will keep Rafael well south of the central Gulf Coast; it will move westward over the next few days. By early next week it will likely be sheared apart and no threat to land.

DROUGHT MONITOR: The new Drought Monitor was released this morning, with 83% of Alabama now in a drought and about 30% in severe or extreme drought.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: A few isolated showers are possible for the high school football playoff games across Alabama Friday night, but most stadiums will be dry. The sky will be mostly cloudy with temperatures falling through the 70s.

On Saturday, UAB will host UConn at Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham (1:30 p.m. kickoff); expect a mix of sun and clouds with a passing shower possible during the game. Temperatures will hover between 78 and 81 degrees.

Alabama will be in Baton Rouge to take on LSU (6:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be cloudy with a shower or two possible; temperatures will fall slowly through the 70s. Some lightning and thunder can’t be ruled out but isn’t likely.

ON THIS DATE IN 1957: A historic tornado outbreak affected southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Ten people were killed.

ON THIS DATE IN 2001: Typhoon Lingling struck the southern Philippines, killing 171 people with 118 missing in Camiguin. The typhoon then struck Vietnam five days later, killing an additional 18 people.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.