RADAR CHECK: We have a few spotty showers over Alabama this afternoon, but a decent part of the state is dry with a mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures are generally in the upper 60s. Rain will become widespread across the state tonight ahead of a surface front.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end, marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for the southwest corner of the state late this afternoon and tonight. Some of the heavier storms there could produce strong, gusty winds. An isolated, brief tornado can’t be ruled out.

Rain will end early Thursday morning from northwest to southeast across Alabama as the front pushes through. Highs will be between 67 and 71 degrees for most places today and Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We’ll have perfect weather for the Deep South, with sunny, pleasant days and clear, cool nights. Colder spots across north Alabama could reach the mid to upper 30s early Saturday morning; otherwise, lows will be in the 40s. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s Friday, close to 70 Saturday and in the low to mid 70s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: A major pattern change is ahead for North America. The ridge that has been keeping the Deep South warm and mostly dry will be replaced by a deep, long-wave upper trough. A surface front will bring showers Tuesday night, followed by much colder air. Highs drop into the 50s Thursday and Friday, with lows in the 30s for much of north Alabama.

TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.

Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 90% chance of development; the name will be Sara.

A few notes:

• There is a decent chance this system will be a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
• Most global model ensemble members suggest it could directly affect south Florida by the middle of next week.
• The projected upper air pattern next week will likely keep this system well to the south of the central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) with no impact there other than dangerous rip currents.
• Until the system actually develops and data is acquired from Hurricane Hunter aircraft, it’s impossible to know the track or intensity. These are just initial ideas.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: It will be a perfect night for high school playoff games Friday night, a clear sky with temperatures falling through the 50s.

On Saturday, Auburn hosts Louisiana-Monroe at Jordan-Hare Stadium (11:45 a.m. kickoff). Expect a sun-filled sky with temperatures rising from the mid 60s at kickoff to near 70 by the final whistle.

Alabama hosts Mercer Saturday (1 p.m. kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The sky will be sunny with temperatures between 67 and 70 degrees.

UAB plays at Memphis (7 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be clear with temperatures falling from the low 60s at kickoff into the low 50s by the fourth quarter.

ON THIS DATE IN 1833: In 1833, observers were familiar with the Leonid meteor shower, but the event that year was very intense and led to the first formulation of a theory on the origin of meteors. By some estimates, the 1833 Leonid meteor shower had 240,000 meteors in a nine-hour period.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.