MILD TUESDAY: Surface high pressure will dominate Alabama’s weather today, ensuring mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures. Morning lows started near 31 degrees, but afternoon highs will climb to a comfortable 59 degrees. Winds will be light, shifting to the east at 3-6 mph, making for a pleasant, calm Christmas Eve.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Expect partly cloudy skies in the morning, gradually transitioning to overcast conditions during the afternoon as a deepening trough to the west triggers rain and thunderstorms over east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. The associated band of showers will weaken as it approaches Alabama. Showers will move into western parts of the state during the evening, with rain becoming more scattered as it progresses eastward. Morning lows will start near 37 degrees, with afternoon highs reaching around 61. Rainfall amounts will be light, near 0.2 inch, and no severe weather is expected.

REST OF THE WEEK: Thursday will begin with lingering cloud cover and a slight chance of an early morning shower as the Christmas disturbance dissipates. Skies will gradually clear through the day, with highs reaching 60 degrees. Morning lows will be mild for this time of year, hovering around 47 degrees. Easterly winds at 6-11 mph will help keep the day cool and pleasant despite some lingering moisture.

Most of the state will remain dry during the day Friday, though isolated showers are possible. Morning lows will start around 48 degrees, with highs again near 61 degrees. By Friday night, rain chances will increase as a band of showers moves in, bringing totals of around one-quarter inch.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday’s weather will turn more active as an approaching disturbance enhances lift across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the day, with heavier rain and embedded storms likely overnight. Morning lows will be warm at 57 degrees, with afternoon highs climbing to 65. Rainfall totals could exceed 1 inch in some areas, and while widespread severe weather is not expected, a marginal risk for isolated strong storms is possible. Breezy southeast to south-southwest winds at 12-18 mph will accompany this system.

Sunday begins with lingering showers and some thunder in the morning; rain tapers off by early afternoon. Morning lows will remain mild at 54 degrees, with highs reaching 63 degrees. By the afternoon, skies will turn partly cloudy, offering a break from the rainy conditions. Winds will shift to the west at 5-10 mph, with occasional gusts up to 18 mph.

NEW YEAR’S WEEK: Monday will be pleasant and tranquil. Expect a mix of sunshine and clouds, with highs climbing to a mild 66 degrees after a cool morning low of 46. This respite will provide a welcome break from the active weather before the next system arrives.

Another weakening disturbance is set to move through on New Year’s Eve, bringing a band of light showers and keeping temperatures mild, with highs in the mid 60s. New Year’s Day will be damp, with a few leftover showers persisting. Beyond that, a series of quick-moving systems are expected to affect the region on Jan. 2-3 and Jan. 7. While no cold air is in sight, and snow fans will be left disappointed, the active pattern suggests the wet weather may continue well into early January.

RAIN PROJECTIONS GROWING: The train of disturbances is helping to fatten rainfall projections over the next 16 days. We need it, with the lingering drought.

ON THIS DATE IN 2004: An arctic cold front brought an extraordinary weather event to southeast Texas as temperatures plunged below freezing and a deep layer of cold air allowed snow to fall and stick to the ground. This rare setup created a true white Christmas across the region, with snow even covering palm trees. Brownsville, Texas, received 1.5 inches of snow — the first measurable snowfall there in 105 years — while Houston experienced its first white Christmas ever. Corpus Christi saw 5.2 inches of snow, more than had fallen in all prior years combined, and New Orleans had its first white Christmas in 50 years.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Bill Murray and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.