QUIET CHRISTMAS EVENING: As Christmas Day transitions into night, a calm, mild evening awaits Alabama. High pressure positioned to the east has held off any significant weather, providing mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s earlier in the day. Tonight, expect increasing cloud cover from the west as a weak system approaches. While most areas will remain dry, a few isolated showers may develop west of I-65 by midnight, with lows ranging from the mid-30s in the northeast to the low 40s in the west.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Thursday brings partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region as moisture begins to filter in ahead of an approaching disturbance. The best chance for scattered showers will remain near and west of I-65, with the heaviest activity confined to areas west of Tuscaloosa. Highs will climb into the mid-50s to mid-60s, cooler in the east where cloud cover will linger longer. Southeastern winds will remain light, maintaining a mild, stable air mass over the state.

Friday begins a more active weather pattern with rain chances increasing during the afternoon, particularly in northwest Alabama. A weak frontal boundary will spread moisture into the region. Although much of the state will remain dry through midday, scattered showers are likely to develop by late afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 60s, with southeast breezes picking up slightly, adding to the damp feel. Rainfall totals will remain light, but the unsettled weather sets the stage for a wetter, more dynamic Saturday.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday will be the most active day of the week as a more robust storm system moves into the Southeast. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected, particularly during the afternoon and evening. While instability may be limited due to lingering cloud cover, a favorable wind profile suggests the potential for a few strong storms, especially in the western and central parts of the state. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely, with localized heavier totals. The primary severe threats include gusty winds and an isolated tornado, though confidence in widespread severe weather remains low at this time.

Rain and thunderstorms will linger into Sunday morning as the frontal system moves through. By midday, precipitation will taper off, leaving behind partly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the mid-60s, and a light southwest breeze will help dry things out. Sunday evening will see clearing skies, offering a brief respite before the next system approaches early in the new week.

NEW YEAR’S WEEK: High pressure will briefly build into the region on Monday, providing a mix of sunshine and clouds with highs in the mid to upper 50s. It will be a dry, tranquil day, giving residents a chance to recover from the weekend’s storms. However, this break will be short-lived as another fast-moving system brings rain chances back into the forecast by late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday will feature another round of scattered showers as a weaker disturbance sweeps through the state. Rainfall totals are expected to remain light, and severe weather is not anticipated. Highs will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, with clearing skies expected by evening. This system will pave the way for drier conditions heading into New Year’s Eve.

New Year’s Eve looks quiet and cool, with temperatures in the upper 40s under partly cloudy skies. The beginning of 2025 will feature a series of quick-moving systems that could bring additional rain chances later in the week. While the extended outlook suggests an active pattern, there is no indication of significant cold air intrusions, keeping the region mild and wet for early January.

ON THIS DATE IN 2004: A rare Gulf Coast snowstorm on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day brought historic snowfall to parts of Texas and Louisiana. Corpus Christi set a new record with 4.4 inches of snow, while Victoria, Texas, saw an incredible 13 inches, marking its first white Christmas in 86 years. Galveston and Port Aransas, both on the Gulf of Mexico, recorded 3 and 4 inches of snow, respectively. Brownsville, at the southern tip of Texas, received 1.5 inches, its first measurable snow since 1895. Meanwhile, New Orleans experienced its only white Christmas since weather records began in 1852, with half an inch of snow falling on Christmas Day. This marked only the 15th occurrence of measurable snow in the Crescent City and the first since December 1989.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Bill Murray and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.