DRY THROUGH SATURDAY: A dry cold front will pass through Alabama today with scattered clouds; expect a high in the 50s this afternoon, right at average for early January. Saturday will be a bit colder; temperatures won’t get out of the 40s over the northern half of the state after starting the day in the 20s.

STORM NUMBER ONE: Clouds will increase Saturday night, and Sunday will be a cloudy, windy day with rain moving in ahead of a storm system. The Storm Prediction Center has defined a risk of severe thunderstorms over Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas Sunday, but the threat of severe storms in Alabama looks fairly low at this point as the cold front moves through Sunday night due to the lack of surface-based instability.

Gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) could gust to 30-40 mph in spots late Sunday and Sunday night.

NEXT WEEK: Rain ends very early Monday; the day will be windy and much colder, with temperatures holding in the 30s over the northern half of the state. The wind chill index will remain below freezing for much of the state, and a few scattered, light snow flurries are possible over the northern counties. The weather looks dry but very cold Tuesday through Thursday, with highs in the 30s for the northern two-thirds of Alabama; lows will be between 16 and 26 degrees for most places. Freezing temperatures are likely down to the Gulf Coast.

STORM NUMBER TWO: Global models continue to show signals of a surface wave forming over the northern Gulf of Mexico next Friday. With cold air in place, this opens the door for some potential wintry precipitation across parts of the Deep South Friday or Friday night, Jan. 10. A number of ensemble members suggest potential for snow across Alabama, but there is no skill in a specific forecast at this point. We don’t know who gets snow, how much will accumulate (if any), or whether there will be any impact (societal or travel).

We won’t have real clarity until storm No. 1 gets out of here Sunday night and Monday.

ON THIS DATE IN 1949: During the late afternoon, an estimated F4 tornado destroyed Warren, Arkansas. The tornado killed 55 people and injured more than 250 others. The destruction of the Bradley mill displaced 1,000 employees.

ON THIS DATE IN 2023: A long-duration severe weather event occurred from the late morning of Jan. 3 to the early
morning of Jan. 4. Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms affected central Alabama, producing 14 tornadoes along with damaging straight-line winds, quarter-sized hail and flooding. Most of the tornadoes were rated EF-0 or EF-1; there was one rated EF-2 at Lake Jordan, just north of Holtville and Slapout.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.