James Spann: Alabama stays cold, dry through Thursday; wintry mix arrives Friday
COLD: Temperatures will remain well below average through the rest of the week across the Deep South, and Alabama will be dry through Thursday. Highs will range from 35 to 45 degrees across the state, with lows well below freezing. The northern third of the state will dip into the teens early Thursday morning.
WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY: A surface low is forecast to form along the Louisiana coast Thursday night, and that will spread a messy mix of wintry precipitation into much of Alabama after midnight Thursday night into Friday morning. Here are the key messages:
- Icy travel is very likely Friday morning north of a line from Moundville to Clanton to Roanoke as freezing rain, sleet and snow move in from the west. Some bridge icing is even possible as far south as I-85 (Montgomery to Opelika). A few models show some brief freezing rain down to Eufaula.
- Freezing rain and snow will continue along and north of I-20 through midday, with a gradual change to a cold rain during the afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid 30s. However, north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), snow or freezing rain could linger into the evening.
- The highest snow amounts will likely be found over the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama; our forecast is conservative for now with 2- to 3-inch potential there. Snow accumulation of one-half to 1 inch is possible down to places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston and Gadsden, but much of the wintry precipitation there will fall in the form of freezing rain.
- The forecast snow totals could be raised higher as new model data comes in and we get better clarity. The ground and infrastructure will be cold, air coming in from the north is moving over an impressive snowpack, and we could have some evaporative cooling at the onset of the precipitation early Friday morning. These factors are favorable for a winter storm event over north Alabama.
- Icy travel is likely over the northern half of Alabama Friday morning; some improvement is likely by afternoon over the central counties, but travel could remain hazardous from U.S. 278 north (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden) through Friday night.
- A winter storm watch will likely be issued for much of north Alabama at some point Wednesday.
- A few lingering snow flurries or snow showers are possible in the cold air Saturday on the back side of the departing storm system.
- This forecast can, and probably will, change as we get closer to Friday. Like tropical forecasts, when you are working with old information you are working with bad information, so be sure and watch for updates.
Our weather will be cold and dry Sunday through most of next week, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.
ON THIS DATE IN 1989: Empty foundations were all that remained of four homes on the southwest end of Allendale, Illinois, after an F4 tornado ripped through. The tornado was extremely rare due to its strength and that it occurred so far north during the middle of meteorological winter.
For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.