COLD, DRY THROUGH THURSDAY: With a sunny sky this afternoon, temperatures range from the low 30s over the Tennessee Valley to the low to mid 40s near the Gulf Coast. Tonight will be clear and cold, with a low between 17 and 25 degrees for most places.

The weather stays cold and dry Thursday, with a high in the 40s; clouds will increase Thursday night.

WINTER STORM WATCH: A winter storm watch is in effect for Friday for about the northern third of Alabama, as far south as Millport, Birmingham, Sylacauga and Roanoke.

Here are the key messages for Friday’s winter storm potential:

• A mix of snow, sleet and some freezing rain will move into west and north Alabama very early Friday morning; for most places it begins in the 3 to 6 a.m. time frame. A cold rain will begin over south Alabama.
• As the precipitation begins, evaporative cooling will likely bring temperatures down into the 28- to 31-degree range over the northern half of the state, where icy, hazardous road problems will likely begin. Some wintry precipitation is possible down into central Alabama, potentially as far south as Greensboro, Montgomery, Opelika and Phenix City (these places could see a brief period of freezing rain).
• During the day, the warm air advection process should be responsible for snow and freezing rain changing to a cold rain across central Alabama. For example, in the Birmingham metro, morning snow and freezing rain should be just a cold rain by midday Friday with temperatures creeping up into the mid 30s. However, for areas along and north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), precipitation could remain all snow through the event. The latest model runs do show some potential for a change to rain as far north as the Tennessee Valley for a brief time.
• The National Weather Service is forecasting amounts of 4-6 inches for the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama. Totals of 2-3 inches are forecast for places like Anniston and Gadsden in northeast Alabama, around 1-2 inches for Birmingham and one-half to 1 inch for Tuscaloosa. Some freezing rain could create icy bridges down to the I-85 corridor for a brief time Friday morning.
• The NWS forecast snow amounts might need to be adjusted a little lower based on model trends we are seeing.
• I possess no knowledge of future road conditions in any specific location at any given time. Please see ALGO Traffic for information on road conditions as the event unfolds.
• A few lingering flurries are possible Saturday morning, but the weekend will be dry. Where snow cover lingers (mainly the Tennessee Valley), temperatures could drop into the 10- to 15-degree range early Sunday morning with a clear sky and light wind.
• Please understand forecasting the future, especially when it comes to winter storms in Alabama, isn’t easy. This forecast could change between now and Friday.

Next week looks mostly dry with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s; the next storm system will likely bring rain (no snow) toward the end of the week.

ON THIS DATE IN 1973: Georgia’s worst ice storm since 1935 occurred. Freezing rain and sleet began during the early morning Jan. 7 and ended in most areas Jan. 8. Total damage was estimated at well over $25 million. The electric power companies suffered losses estimated at $5 million, and telephone companies had $2 million in damages. Some schools were closed for more than a week.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.