BIG CHANGES AHEAD: Clouds will gradually increase across Alabama today ahead of a disturbance that will bring periods of rain to the state tonight and tomorrow. Afternoons will be very pleasant for winter with highs exceeding 60 degrees in many areas today and tomorrow. Rain amounts over the next 36 hours will be around 1/2 inch for most of the state. Lingering showers should be out of the state by mid to late afternoon tomorrow.

Then, on Sunday, the coldest air so far this season rolls into Alabama with an icy north wind. Temperatures will hold in the 30s over the northern half of the state, with wind chill indices below freezing. The sky should become partly sunny during the day as the cold air arrives.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry and very cold. The low early in the day will be in the 12-18 degree range for much of North Alabama, with low 20s down to Mobile. Temperatures stay below freezing all day for the northern half of the state. Clouds will increase Monday night as a broad surface low forms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Global models are in much better agreement this morning, all suggesting a good chance of snow for parts of the Deep South Tuesday. Highest probability of accumulating snow in Alabama for now is along and south of I-20… the southern 2/3 of the state. Higher totals could actually be south of U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Montgomery to Opelika). With very cold air in place, no doubt there will be some very significant impact, but it is still too early to be really specific. How much snow? Will there be any freezing rain involved? When does it start and stop? Road conditions? We will begin to address all of those questions over the weekend as we get within the window to see high resolution model output.

One thing we can say with confidence is that very cold air will be in place Sunday through Wednesday. It is possible that a few spots across far North Alabama could go below freezing Sunday, and stay below freezing until sometime Thursday morning. Plan now for 4-5 days of this Arctic airmass.

See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

ON THIS DATE IN 1999: An F4 tornado tracked across southern Jackson, Tennessee, damaging more than 200 homes and 55 buses. The storm killed six people and injured 106.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.com.