Scott Martin: Wet but mild Saturday for Alabama; cold spell starts Sunday, with potential winter storm Tuesday

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Today, a warm front will push northeastward through Alabama, bringing warm temperatures, a good bit of moisture for showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder. However, those temperatures will begin to drastically drop as a strong cold front moves in during the evening, blasting the state with a very cold, dry air mass. While afternoon highs will top out in the upper 50s to the lower 70s from north to south, overnight lows will be in the upper 20s to the mid 40s from northwest to southeast. Don’t be surprised if we see some wrap-around snow flurries during the night.
Sunday will be much colder with diminishing clouds throughout the day. We will see highs in the lower 30s to the mid 50s and lows in the lower teens to the lower 20s. Once much of the northern half of the state drops below the freezing point on Sunday, highs may not reach above freezing again until Wednesday.
WINTRY WEEK: On Monday, after the bitterly cold start, there will be plenty of sunshine through the morning and into the early afternoon, before clouds start to move in from the west from the upcoming winter storm threat. There is no threat of any wintry precipitation on Monday for now. Highs will be only in the mid 20s to the lower 40s from northeast to southwest.
A winter storm threat will most likely affect much of Alabama on Tuesday. The Climate Prediction Center has outlined the potential of heavy snow for a good portion of the Southeast, including much of central and south Alabama, with freezing rain potential for southern and southeastern Alabama. This in an increase in coverage area since previous updates.
The latest model ensemble runs have come in, and the European and the Global Forecast System models are in very close agreement that the heavier precipitation will be over the southern half of the state, south of the I-20 corridor. However, the Canadian models have nearly the entire state receiving 3-7 inches of snow. While I believe that is an outlier, we still can’t throw it in the garbage.
Looking at the model runs, light snow will begin to move into the state as early as sunrise Tuesday over the southwestern and western parts. By noon, much of central Alabama will be seeing some light snowfall as heavier snow and sleet start to move in over southwest Alabama. By 6 p.m., the southern half of the state is getting heavy snowfall and a mix of sleet and freezing rain, while a good chunk of the northern half is still getting light snow. As we reach midnight, much of the activity has moved out of the northern half, while a wintry mix continues over the southern half. We’ll get a better idea of what and how much to expect once the higher-resolution models come into play. Highs are expected to reach the 30s statewide, but we may see temperatures even struggle to make that if snowfall starts earlier.
After waking up with early morning lows in the lower teens to the lower 20s, it looks like daytime highs will finally get above freezing on Wednesday. High pressure will be off to our southwest over southern Mississippi, bringing in much drier air and some sunshine, hopefully to help melt away any snow and ice from the roadways and bridges. Afternoon highs will be back into the mid 30s to the lower 40s.
Thursday is looking partly to mostly cloudy across the state, and just a bit warmer. After the chilly start, afternoon highs will max out in the lower 40s to the lower 50s.
On Friday, we could see a few snow flurries over the extreme northern portions of the state during the afternoon and evening, while a few sprinkles will be possible south of that. For now, we do not believe this will be an issue. Afternoon highs look to top out in the lower 40s to the lower 50s.
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