ON THE MAP: This morning, a surface front is over south Alabama; temperatures are in the 30s and 40s over the northern counties, but south of the front places like Mobile and Dothan are in the 60s. A few spotty showers are possible through tonight, but most places will stay dry. Highs will vary from the mid 50s over the Tennessee Valley to the low 70s across far south Alabama.

BIG SOAKING: We expect multiple waves of rain, along with a few thunderstorms, across Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday. The rain could be very heavy at times; amounts for the northern half of the state will be 3-6 inches, with 1-3 inches for the southern counties. A few flooding issues are possible by Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for parts of west Alabama Wednesday; a few storms could produce gusty winds. The chance of a tornado is very low but not zero.

Rain will end early in the day Thursday for most of the state, followed by a clearing sky. Friday will be mostly sunny; the low Friday morning will be in the 30s over the northern half of the state. Highs should be in the 60s statewide Friday afternoon.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: More rain for the state. A dynamic system will bring rain and thunderstorms in here by Saturday afternoon, continuing Saturday night. More heavy rain is likely, and the SPC has defined a severe weather threat for most of Alabama. For now, it looks like the core threat will come from about 3 p.m. until midnight Saturday; it’s too early to know the magnitude. Once we get the midweek system out of here, we can focus on the weekend.

Additional rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely before dry air returns. The sky becomes mostly sunny Sunday with a high in the 50s for the northern two-thirds of the state.

NEXT WEEK: Monday, Feb. 17, will be cold and dry; a freeze is likely for much of the state, with lows in the 20s and low 30s. Global models show potential for another big rainmaker by Wednesday.

ON THIS DATE IN 1981: A morning tornado at Bay Minette struck the middle school, severely damaging the gymnasium. The tornado injured 62 people, 44 of whom were students.

ON THIS DATE IN 2013: In the afternoon, a large multiple-vortex EF-4 tornado devastated the cities of West Hattiesburg, Hattiesburg and Petal, Mississippi. The tornado was one of eight that touched down in southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. While there were no fatalities, 71 were injured.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.