ACTIVE DAY: A flood watch has been issued through tonight for parts of central and northeast Alabama, where additional rain amounts of 2-3 inches are possible. Occasional rain will continue statewide through tonight, and we also have the risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms as far north as Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Jacksonville; a marginal risk (level 1) is in place as far north as Huntsville.

We still believe the highest risk of severe storms will be over the southern half of Alabama this afternoon and tonight. There is a well-defined warm front over south Alabama this morning, and the northward extent of the severe thunderstorm risk will be defined by the position of this front. High-resolution models suggest the front will have a hard time moving past U.S. 80 tonight; this will keep the air cool and stable over the northern half of the state if this idea is correct.

Storms over south Alabama this afternoon and tonight will be capable of producing strong winds, and a few isolated tornadoes are possible. Those in north Alabama still need to pay close attention to the weather in case the warm front moves farther north. Temperatures today will range from the low to mid 50s across the Tennessee Valley to the 70s over the southern counties.

Rain and storms will end early in the day Thursday, followed by a clearing sky. A freeze is likely early Friday morning for north Alabama; the day will be mostly sunny with a high between 58 and 64 degrees.

STORMY WEEKEND: A dynamic weather system will bring another threat of severe thunderstorms to Alabama over the weekend. The SPC has defined a risk for most of Alabama, with an enhanced risk for the western counties.

Saturday will be mild and windy, with temperatures reaching the 70s. Much of the day will be dry; then an organized batch of rain and storms will arrive Saturday night into early Sunday. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but we need to get today’s system out of here before we can be specific about the magnitude, the timing and the tornado threat.

Sunday will be cooler and breezy with a clearing sky, and a freeze is likely for most of the state by Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: The week will be cool, with highs in the 40s and 50s; global models continue to suggest a big rainmaker either Wednesday or Thursday.

ON THIS DATE IN 1958: Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan, reported zero visibility in heavy snow in the afternoon.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.