RADAR CHECK: Storms are moving out of southeast Alabama just before sunrise; drier air will roll into the state today with a clearing sky and cooler temperatures. A freeze is likely early Friday morning over the northern half of the state, with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. Friday will feature a good supply of sunshine with highs between 57 and 64 degrees for most places.

STORMY WEEKEND: Saturday will be breezy and warmer, with temperatures rising into the 70s across much of the state. A dynamic system will bring rain and storms by Saturday night, and the Storm Prediction Center has defined an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for the western counties, with a slight risk (level 2) elsewhere.

While a storm can’t be ruled out by mid to late afternoon, it looks like most of the issues will come from a long line of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday. Wind fields with this system will be very strong, and storms along the line could produce damaging straight-line winds along with a few isolated tornadoes. For now, it looks like the main window for severe storms in Alabama will come between 6 p.m. Saturday and 6 a.m. Sunday.

The line will be moving quickly, but rain amounts will likely be 1 to 2 inches for most of the state.

Once we get within 60 hours of the event, we will be able to see high-resolution model output that will give us a much better look at the timing and specific threats. Sunday will feature a clearing sky with highs mostly in the 60s.

NEXT WEEK: A freeze is likely for much of the state early Monday and Tuesday mornings, with 20s for the northern half. Rain returns Wednesday from a low near the Gulf Coast, meaning no risk of severe thunderstorms. Global models hint at some potential for a quick change to light snow over far north Alabama as the precipitation ends Wednesday night or early Thursday, but it is way too early to know whether this happens or whether there will be any impact.

Another surge of colder air moves into the state after the midweek rain.

ON THIS DATE IN 2000: Late in the day and into the early morning of Feb. 14, severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes over southwestern Georgia that killed 19, injured 202 and caused $35 million in damages. An F3 tornado hit southern Camilla, killing 11 people and wounding 175 others.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.