WINDY: Gradient winds have ramped up across Alabama; gusts are 30-40 mph for most communities. Montgomery reports a gust to 44 mph at midafternoon. We have a mix of sun and clouds, but a line of showers and storms will move into west Alabama by 5-6 p.m.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms across south Alabama; most of the rest of the state is in a slight risk (level 2).

Key messages for tonight:

• There will be very little surface-based instability ahead of the line, which will limit the overall magnitude of the event. A brief, isolated tornado is possible within the line but isn’t especially likely for most of Alabama. However, some unstable air could very well make it into southwest Alabama; a tornado or two is possible in this part of the state.
• Wind fields remain impressive with the tight pressure gradient. Gradient winds (non-thunderstorm) will continue gusting to 45 mph. With the line itself, convective winds could be high enough in spots to bring down some trees and power lines. Secure any loose objects (like trampolines) that might go flying this evening. Gradient winds will diminish a bit after the line passes, but it stays breezy through Wednesday.
• This will be a fast-moving line of storms; rain amounts will be around one-half inch for most places. Flooding is not expected.
• The main line should enter the northwest corner of Alabama around 5-6 p.m. and exit the southeast corner by 1-2 a.m. Showers are likely ahead of the line this afternoon over northwest Alabama.

Look for a partly sunny sky Wednesday with a high between 57 and 64 degrees; a few scattered showers are possible over the northern third of the state by afternoon with moisture wrapping around the deep surface low to the north. High-resolution models even suggest potential for a few snowflakes over parts of the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama early Wednesday night due to very cold air aloft, but temperatures at the surface will be well above freezing, and there won’t be any impact.

Temperatures will drop near freezing over north Alabama early Thursday morning, followed by a high between 53 and 60 degrees with sunshine in full supply.

Friday will be sunny and warmer, with a high in the upper 60s and low 70s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A fast-moving disturbance will bring some rain to the state over the weekend; for now, it looks like the best chance will come Saturday night into Sunday morning. Severe storms are not expected, and highs will be mostly in the 60s.

For now, most of next week looks dry and mild, although global models are hinting at a few showers Wednesday night or Thursday.

ON THIS DATE IN 1842: A tornado moved through western Tuscaloosa, killing one person and injuring several others.

ON THIS DATE IN 1873: The second inauguration of Ulysses S. Grant remains Washington, D.C.’s record cold March day. The low was 4 degrees, and by noon, with the sunshine, the temperature was 16 degrees. Wind chills were around 30 degrees below zero. The 40 mph winds made his inaugural address inaudible to most on the platform with him.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.