WARM AFTERNOONS: Look for a high between 77 and 82 degrees for most Alabama communities today and Friday with a partly sunny sky. The chance for rain will remain well to the west of Alabama through Friday night.

THE WEEKEND: Some rain is certainly possible over the weekend, but models are trending drier for Alabama. We will mention a few passing showers along with a rumble of thunder Saturday and Sunday, but it looks more and more like a decent part of both days will be dry. New model output suggests the highest coverage of rain will be Saturday night. Highs both days will be somewhere between 75 and 82 degrees for most places.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: Unstable air will surge northward into the Deep South Sunday, and an energetic storm system will bring the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. The Storm Prediction Center defines almost all of Alabama in a severe weather risk.

Considerable uncertainty remains with this event. While the large-scale pattern certainly features a risk of severe thunderstorms with a robust warm sector in place, models differ with the small-scale details that will really determine the magnitude of the threat. An organized batch of storms with potential for hail, strong winds and isolated tornadoes will move through north Alabama early Monday morning, shifting into the southern counties by afternoon.

A higher tornado threat could form after midnight Sunday night and into early Monday over north Alabama if discrete cells can form ahead of the main line, but that potential is very iffy based on the latest model trends. Once we get within 60 hours of the event, we will be in range of the high-resolution convection-allowing models, giving us a much clearer picture.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: Tuesday will be dry and mild, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Look for the warmest weather so far this year over the latter half of the week, with highs in the low to mid 80s. A few scattered showers are possible Wednesday through Friday, but with an upper ridge in place, we aren’t expecting anything really widespread or heavy.

LONG RANGE: With an upper ridge over the region, temperatures will likely remain above average through April 9.

ON THIS DATE IN 1994: An EF-4 tornado struck the Goshen United Methodist Church north of Piedmont in southern Cherokee County, killing 20 people during the morning worship service on Palm Sunday; 92 were injured. A warning was issued 12 minutes before the tornado destroyed the church building, but, unfortunately, they never heard it.

The deaths at the church brought to light the deficiencies in the NOAA Weather Radio network across the United States at the time, and the lack of NOAA Weather Radio use in many public spaces. We have come a long way since then, but we have much work to do. Every home, business, church and public place must have a way of hearing warnings.

Later that day, an EF-2 tornado moved through north Shelby County. It extensively damaged businesses and mobile homes and damaged Pelham High School. It dissipated just west of Meadowbrook as it moved down Alabama 119.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.