TODAY’S WEATHER: A few showers are showing up on radar early this morning, but with dry air in place, most of it likely isn’t reaching the ground. As moisture increases through the day, rain will start making it to the surface, with coverage increasing into the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but with instability and shear staying low, severe weather isn’t expected. Rainfall amounts should stay under one-half inch for most, though some areas in northwestern Alabama could see a bit more. Those clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures slightly cooler in the northwest, but highs will still reach the mid to upper 70s.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE: A strong weather system will move across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley on Sunday, bringing the potential for severe storms. Some models suggest lingering showers may limit the severe threat, but that may be an outlier for now. A higher risk could be needed in future updates if conditions become more favorable for dangerous storms. Stay weather-aware and keep an eye on updates.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has an enhanced risk of severe storms (level 3 of 5) up for the northwest corner of Alabama, with a slight risk (level 2) south and east of that to the east-central and southwestern parts of the state, and a marginal risk (level 1) for the rest of the state on Sunday. These risks are for late Sunday until 7 a.m. Monday.

That severe risk carries over through the day Monday, with much of the state in a slight risk for severe storms except for the northwest corner, where a marginal risk is up.

All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. The main window for severe weather will start at early as 10 p.m. Sunday in the northwest corner of the state and slowly move southeastward, with the threat reaching the central parts of the state by 4 a.m. Monday and making it into the southeastern parts around 8 a.m., exiting by 3 p.m.

REST OF THE WEEK: Tuesday looks to be a quiet day stuck between the departing storms from Monday and another approaching system on Wednesday. Temperatures will stay mild to warm after the frontal passage, reaching the lower 70s to the lower 80s. Much of the day will be mostly sunny, but clouds will be on the increase late with the approach of the next potential severe weather threat for parts of the state.

As we head into the second half of the week, a strong weather pattern will set up. A ridge near Florida will pump in some serious warmer weather, with temperatures approaching record highs. But before that takes over, we’ve got a storm system to watch on Wednesday. A cold front will stall just northwest of Alabama Wednesday night, and right now, it’s unclear whether storms will make it into Alabama. If they do, they could pack a punch, with the potential for all types of severe weather. The setup isn’t a slam dunk for storms, but it’s something we’ll be watching closely. For now, the SPC has a slight risk for severe storms in northwestern Alabama. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

With a stalled front hanging out to our northwest and disturbances rotating around the ridge, we’ll need to keep an eye on Thursday and Friday for any thunderstorms that could sneak into the state. If they do, they might temporarily weaken the ridge, and with plenty of heat and instability around, storms could turn strong. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s something to watch as we head into the end of the week. Thursday’s and Friday’s highs will be in the lower 80s to near 90 degrees.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.