Published On: 04.05.25 | 

By: Bill Murray

Bill Murray: Severe threat for Alabama tonight through Sunday afternoon

HOT: Record-breaking heat closed out the work week, with Tuscaloosa and Anniston setting or tying high-temperature marks. Tuscaloosa hit 88 degrees, breaking the old record of 87 set just two years ago, while Anniston matched its long-standing record of 86 from 1969. Highs surged into the mid to upper 80s across much of north and central Alabama.

THE WEEKEND: While Saturday starts warm and mostly dry, attention quickly turns to the west. A potent upper trough over the Southwest U.S. will send a cold front marching eastward, and pre-frontal thunderstorms could begin developing over western Alabama by midday Saturday. The severe threat during the daylight will be more limited, with enough convective inhibition and lingering ridging to keep most storms under control, but we can’t rule out a strong storm or two by afternoon, especially in the far western and northwestern counties.

Despite increasing clouds and shower chances, Saturday will again feature unseasonably hot temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 80s across much of central and south Alabama, with a few 90s not out of the question if enough sun breaks through early. Expect breezy conditions out of the south, with gusts up to 25 mph.

The main show begins after dark. A line of thunderstorms will reach western Alabama around or just after midnight. This is when the severe threat ramps up significantly. Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and large hail will all be possible, especially with any discrete cells that can form ahead of the main line. Helicity values will support low-level rotation.

By Sunday morning, storms will be moving slowly through central Alabama, reaching Birmingham by midmorning and continuing into south Alabama through the afternoon and evening. The slower forward progression means storms will have more time to tap into the moist and unstable environment, and that could elevate the tornado risk in the southern and southeastern counties by afternoon. The entire state remains under a Level 2 slight risk for severe weather, but don’t let that lower tier fool you — storm mode and timing will determine impacts. All modes of severe weather are on the table, including damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes. We’ll be watching for areas that destabilize quickly ahead of the front, especially in zones where the sun peeks out between waves.

In addition to the severe threat, very heavy rainfall is expected with these storms. The setup features anomalously high precipitable water values, rich low-level moisture and training cells. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are likely across much of the state, with some spots picking up even more. Flash flooding and localized inundation are possible, especially in areas with poor drainage or where storms repeat. The Weather Prediction Center has much of the region in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall, so stay alert if you’re in a flood-prone location.

THE WORK WEEK: As the front finally exits the state Sunday night, a much cooler air mass will filter in from the northwest. Monday’s highs may not get out of the 50s across north Alabama, a stark contrast from the upper 80s just two days earlier. Clouds may linger early, and a few wraparound showers could dot the northern counties, but most of the day will be dry and breezy. It’s a brisk reset that marks the beginning of an extended cooldown.

Clear skies and calm winds will set the stage for a chilly pair of mornings Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 30s across much of north Alabama, and sheltered valleys could touch freezing. This raises the specter of frost, and even a late-season freeze can’t be ruled out in a few spots. Sensitive plants should be protected, especially in areas that traditionally run a little colder.

By Wednesday afternoon, the pattern begins to shift again. Sunshine will help push highs back into the 60s, and Thursday will bring a climb into the 70s. Another system may approach by late Thursday or Friday, but for now, the forecast leans dry with only a low-end chance of showers. Humidity will stay comfortably low, and the midweek period looks calm and pleasant.

NEXT WEEKEND: Next weekend is trending warmer and more seasonal. Early signals point to dry weather next Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Another frontal system could arrive late in the weekend or early the following week, but timing is uncertain.

ON THIS DATE IN 1936: One of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in U.S. history claimed 446 lives across the Deep South. A total of 17 tornadoes touched down from Mississippi to the Carolinas. Tupelo, Mississippi, suffered catastrophic losses, with 216 fatalities. Among the survivors was an infant named Elvis Presley. The destruction continued into the early morning of April 6, when Gainesville, Georgia, was devastated by a powerful tornado that killed 203 people and injured more than 900. A photograph lifted by the Tupelo tornado was found 60 miles away in Cherokee, Alabama, and returned to its owner.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Bill Murray and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.