Published On: 07.22.17 | 

By: Brian Peters

Brian Peters: Shower chances rise, temps come down in Alabama

Brian Peters: Heat advisory in effect today for much of Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

TODAY: It is expected to be another warm day across central Alabama as temperatures climb into the middle 90s for most locations. With humidity levels remaining high, the National Weather Service has a heat advisory posted for today from 11 a.m. to 9 p.m., with the heat index expected to top out in the 103 to 106 range. The upper ridge responsible for bringing us the high heat is expected to wane over the next couple of days.

NEXT WEEK: A strong short-wave trough situated just north of Minnesota this morning will dig into the eastern U.S. on Sunday and Monday, pushing the upper ridge back toward the Four Corners area of the Southwest. Precipitable water values for the Southeast will oscillate up and down over the next week, with an uptick on Monday and Tuesday. This, together with the approach of a weak frontal boundary, should combine to provide better chances of showers and thunderstorms. The main timing will still come with the heating of the afternoon. With added clouds and increased coverage of storms along with the increased troughing over the eastern U.S., our temperatures should fall a bit, with highs mainly in the range of 88 to 92.

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, the upper ridge to the west noses back into the Middle Mississippi River Valley, so our temperatures will likely rise, with highs in the lower and middle 90s. While precipitable water values come down a tad, they don’t fall enough to remove all mention of showers, so we’ll keep the idea of scattered afternoon showers and storms.

A trough moving across the eastern Great Lakes and into New England on Friday will drag another weak frontal zone into the Southeast. This looks like we will see another uptick in the presence and coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday as precipitable water values rise again. Once again, the presence of clouds and showers should keep the afternoon highs in the range of 89 to 93.

Rainfall over the next five days will be hit or miss with showers and thunderstorms, but places that do see rain should see amounts between about 1 and 2 inches, with the better chances for rain coming on Monday and Tuesday.

TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin, where tropical storm formation is not expected through next week. The eastern North Pacific, on the other hand, was quite busy, with three areas of concern including Tropical Storm Greg.

BEACH FORECAST: The weather at the beach is fairly typical for July, with daily chances for a passing shower along with highs in the upper 80s. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

BEYOND NEXT WEEK: Looking out into voodoo country, the Global Forecast System remained pretty consistent in keeping a trough in the eastern U.S. for the end of July and early August. This pattern signals warm weather, but keeps the excessive heat over the western U.S.

Stay cool in the heat today and Godspeed.For more weather news and information, visit Alabama Wx.