EYES ON SALLY: Hurricane Sally in the Gulf of Mexico will determine Alabama’s weather for the rest of the week, but this afternoon is quiet, with just a few widely scattered showers over the northern half of the state. It is a warm September afternoon with temperatures between 85 and 90 degrees; the sky is partly sunny. Evening showers will end after sunset, and the weather should be pretty quiet overnight.

The sky becomes mostly cloudy Tuesday and scattered showers are possible during the day, especially the afternoon. The high will be in the low 80s for most communities.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Sally is expected to make landfall along the Mississippi coast Tuesday night and then slowly move through central Alabama as a depression, or remnant low, Wednesday and Wednesday night. On the positive side, the slow motion should allow the system to weaken considerably before getting into our state, so we are not expecting any major wind issues. Winds on Wednesday will be in the 15-25 mph range, with gusts to 30 mph. Yes, windy, but nothing like the wind generated by past hurricanes like Opal, Ivan or Frederic. No widespread power outages are expected.

On the negative side, the slow motion means potential for excessive rain. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from roughly I-20 south, and rain amounts will be in the 10- to 15-inch range for southwest Alabama, 6 to 10 inches for many of the central counties and one-half to 1 inch for the Tennessee Valley of far north Alabama. Wednesday will be mostly a washout with rain throughout the day, heavy at times. It continues Wednesday night.

There is a low-end threat of a few brief, isolated tornadoes over the southern half of the state Wednesday and Wednesday night. For now instability values look fairly low, thankfully. But you always have to watch these type tropical systems for a few “spin-ups”.

We expect the rain to end from west to east during the day Thursday, and drier air will move into the state Thursday night. Highs will be only in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday because of clouds and rain.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather looks delightful for the northern half of the state — partly to mostly sunny, pleasant days and fair, cool nights. Highs will be around 80, lows between 57 and 62. It will feel like fall. A few showers are possible over the weekend over the southern third of the state, but they should be pretty isolated.

NEXT WEEK: The pleasant weather continues with comfortable days and cool nights. The week is looking mostly dry, although a front could bring a few showers late in the week.

SALLY: Sally, which intensified rather rapidly this morning, now is packing sustained winds of 90 mph and is 125 miles east/southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It is moving west/northwest at only 7 mph. Landfall is expected Tuesday night on the Mississippi coast at Category 2 strength.

The Hurricane Warning was adjusted eastward this morning and now includes all of the Alabama Gulf Coast. A storm surge of 6-9 feet is now forecast for Dauphin Island and southern Mobile County. The surge is forecast to be 5-8 feet for Mobile Bay and 4-6 feet in Baldwin County from Fort Morgan to Perdido Pass.

Emergency Management officials are now advising all visitors and residents in Zones 1 and 2 on both sides of Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin counties) to evacuate before Hurricane Sally’s landfall. These zones are over the southern part of these coastal counties.

Alabama beaches were closed at 3 p.m. today.

Sustained winds on Dauphin Island and the Mobile County coastal communities will be 60-80 mph late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with higher gusts. Sustained winds from Fort Morgan to Gulf Shores and Orange Beach will be 30-50 mph, with gusts possible to 75 mph.

REST OF THE TROPICS: There are four other named systems now across the Atlantic basin, but none of these will affect the U.S.

ON THIS DATE IN 2008: Hurricane Ike became extratropical. The St. Louis Metropolitan Area experienced hurricane conditions, with Ike’s remnants inflicting severe damage to homes. Several areas in Illinois and Indiana, already flooded by the frontal boundary to the north, saw significant additional rainfall. A state of emergency was declared for Cook County due to flooding of the Des Plaines River. Hurricane-force wind gusts were reported east of the center across parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with significant wind damage including structural damage to buildings and trees.

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