James Spann: Strong to severe storms move into Alabama late tonight
James Spann has the midweek forecast for Alabama and the latest on tonight’s storms from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.
MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY: We are forecasting a partly sunny sky across Alabama today with a high between 78 and 82 degrees for most communities. A few isolated showers could pop up this afternoon as moisture levels rise, but most places will be dry. A band of showers and thunderstorms will push into Alabama late tonight, and the Storm Prediction Center continues to define a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for a few counties near the Mississippi state line, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as far east as Huntsville, Columbiana, Verbena and Mobile.
Storms will enter far northwest Alabama sometime between 10 p.m. and midnight. They will move slowly southeast after midnight into the early morning Thursday. Storms will be capable of producing strong, gusty winds and small hail. A brief, isolated tornado is possible, but not likely. While the severe weather threat late tonight and Thursday morning isn’t major, you still need to pay attention to warnings if they are needed. Winds could be strong enough to bring down a few trees, and again a brief tornado can’t be ruled out. This is early April in Alabama.
The storms will end by midmorning Thursday as a slot of drier air works into the state, and the sky becomes partly sunny Thursday afternoon with temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s. For some places, Thursday will be the warmest day so far this year.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Additional showers and storms will likely form across Alabama late Thursday night into Friday. This won’t be a continuous rain, and you might even see a few intervals of sunshine Friday. But where storms do form they could be strong, especially Friday afternoon, when the air becomes very unstable. The SPC has defined a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms Friday west of a line from Hamilton to Tuscaloosa to Camden to Fairhope, with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the state. The main threats Friday will come from hail and strong winds.
Unsettled weather continues Friday night into Saturday. There is evidence an organized thunderstorm complex will move into the state Saturday morning with potential for strong winds and a few isolated tornadoes, but in this complex pattern it is difficult to define the magnitude of the threat now. Models are hinting the main chance of rain and storms will shift into south Alabama by Saturday afternoon as drier air begins to filter into the northern half of the state. Sunday looks mostly rain-free statewide with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s Friday through Sunday.
Rain amounts between tonight and Saturday will be 2-3 inches for most of the state. For now, no major flooding is expected.
NEXT WEEK: At the moment the week looks relatively quiet; a front could bring a few showers Tuesday, but it doesn’t look like a major rain event.
ON THIS DATE IN 1980: Severe thunderstorms spawned tornadoes that ripped through central Arkansas. The storms also produced high winds and baseball-sized hail. Five counties were declared disaster areas by President Jimmy Carter. A tornado causing F3 damage also affected St. Louis and St. Charles counties in Missouri, producing $2.5 million in damage.
ON THIS DATE IN 2006: Severe thunderstorms moved through Alabama, producing more than 20 tornadoes, all EF-0 or EF-1. EF-1 tornadoes touched down near Gardendale and Roebuck in Jefferson County.
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