James Spann: Highs in the 70s for Alabama today; strong to severe storms Saturday
James Spann forecasts a warm December day, then strong storms Saturday from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.
WARM DECEMBER DAY: A warm front continues to push northward across Alabama early this morning with a few scattered showers; the sky will be generally cloudy today with a very mild afternoon. We project a high in the mid 70s; the record high for Dec. 10 is 79, set in 2007. We will be watching developments to the northwest late this afternoon and tonight; the Storm Prediction Center has defined an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms from the Mississippi Delta region northward into parts of Illinois and Indiana. Storms that form in that region will become severe, and a strong tornado or two can’t be ruled out.
STORMY START TO THE WEEKEND: The activity northwest of Alabama is expected to evolve into a long squall line after midnight tonight and will move into the state early Saturday morning. The SPC has defined a slight risk (level 2 of 5) as far east as Athens, Haleyville and Millport through 6 a.m., with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to Lake Guntersville and Tuscaloosa. After 6 a.m., most of Alabama is in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5).
TIMING: The line of strong to severe storms will likely enter the northwest corner of Alabama around 3-5 a.m. Saturday. The line should reach the Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden and Tuscaloosa areas around 11 a.m.-noon. After noon the line will move south of I-20, pushing into the southern counties by mid to late afternoon. The severe weather threat is not as great for south Alabama, as dynamic support will be weakening by then.
THREATS: For Alabama, the main threat will come from strong, potentially damaging straight-line winds. A few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out, however. Rain will be briefly heavy, but flooding is not expected.
CALL TO ACTION: Be sure you have a way of hearing severe weather warnings. Your primary source should never be an outdoor siren. Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home properly programmed with a fresh battery in case of power failure. Be sure emergency alerts are enabled on your phone. Review your severe weather plan; identify the safe place and be sure everyone knows where it is. If you live in a mobile home, know where you will go in case you fall in a tornado warning polygon.
Temperatures will go the wrong way Saturday. We start the day in the 67- to 72-degree range, but after the line of storms temperatures will fall into the 50s with a cool northwest wind. The sky will clear Saturday night.
Sunday will be sunny and cool, with a high between 55 and 60 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: The week will be dry and pleasant thanks to an upper high forming over the Gulf Coast region. Highs will be in the 60s Monday through Wednesday and close to 70 Thursday and Friday. The latest Climate Prediction Center outlook suggests temperatures will remain above average across Alabama Dec. 17-23.
ON THIS DATE IN 2008: An EF-1 tornado moved through Oakman in Walker County. The tornado touched down just west of Jackson Street on the north side of Oakman. It traveled northeastward and crossed School Street and Alabama Highway 69, then lifted on Watts Street just east of Alabama 69. Metal bleachers were twisted and thrown at the Oakman School athletic field. Several houses sustained significant roof damage. Approximately 150 trees were either uprooted or snapped off. Little structural damage occurred at the school, but water damage was sustained.
ON THIS DATE IN 2012: An EF-1 tornado passed just north of downtown Birmingham, damaging 29 homes, two of which had major damage and one of which lost its roof entirely. A church and two businesses were damaged near Finley Boulevard and 16th Street. The tornado lifted near 24th Court North and 18th Street North, just west of Interstate 65.
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