James Spann: Storms arrive in Alabama Monday after a warm, dry weekend
WARM: For many Alabama communities, today is the warmest day so far this year. Temperatures are in the low 80s at mid-afternoon with a sunny sky. The average high for Birmingham on March 4 is 64. Tonight will be mostly clear with a low between 48 and 54 degrees.
Warm, dry weather continues over the weekend. Expect a partly sunny sky Saturday and Sunday with highs holding in the low 80s in most places. It will be the warmest weekend so far this year.
MONDAY: A cold front will push into the state, bringing showers and storms by afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong to severe; the Storm Prediction Center has much of north and central Alabama in a severe weather risk, defined for areas north of a line from Butler to Clanton to Ranburne.
Models at the moment suggest the main threats will come from strong straight-line winds and hail; winds aren’t especially favorable for tornadoes. But this event is still 84 hours away and models can change over the weekend, so watch for updates. For now it looks like the main window for severe weather will come from about noon until 8 p.m. Rain amounts of one-half to three-quarters of an inch are expected; major flooding is not expected.
REST OF THE WEEK: The front will stall out around U.S. 80 Tuesday; the best chance of showers will be over the southern third of the state. North and central Alabama will be much cooler, with a high in the 50s and a mix of sun and clouds. A wave of low pressure will bring rain to most of Alabama late Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a dry Thursday.
Another cold front will pass through the state Friday; the latest model guidance shows limited moisture and light rain amounts. Then, much colder air settles into the state for the weekend of March 12-13. There’s a good chance temperatures will drop into the 20s across much of north and central Alabama by Sunday morning, March 13.
ON THIS DATE IN 1873: The second inauguration of Ulysses S. Grant remains Washington, D.C.’s, record cold March day. The low was 4 degrees, and by noon, with the sunshine, the temperature was 16 degrees. Wind chills were around 30 degrees below zero. The 40 mph winds made his inaugural address inaudible to most on the platform with him.
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