James Spann forecasts more standard summer weather for Alabama’s holiday weekend from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

WELCOME TO JULY: We begin the second month of meteorological summer with the usual mix of sun and scattered thunderstorms across Alabama and the Deep South through the holiday weekend. Look for partly sunny days with highs between 86 and 90 degrees. Random, scattered showers and storms will form mainly during the afternoons and evenings, from roughly 2 until 10 p.m. We can’t tell you in advance exactly when and where the storms fire up; for outdoor events just keep a close eye on radar trends. With light winds aloft, the storms that form won’t move much; they can drop lots of rain in a short period of time, and strong, gusty winds can develop. The chance of any one location seeing a storm is 45-55% through Sunday and 30-40% Monday.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge will be a bit stronger across the Deep South, meaning heat levels will rise a bit, with highs mostly in the low 90s. Afternoon showers and storms remain possible, but they should be more widely scattered.TROPICS: The tropical wave that has been over the far western Gulf of Mexico has moved into Texas and won’t develop. Heavy rain is possible across far southwest Texas and southwest Louisiana, where flash flood watches are in effect this morning.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two in the far southwest Caribbean is expected to become Tropical Storm Bonnie today, moving into Central America tonight. A weak wave is approaching the Windward Islands but is is not expected to develop due to harsh environmental conditions. The rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet, and there are no tropical systems threatening the central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) any time soon.

RAIN UPDATE: Here are rain totals since Jan. 1, and the departure from average:

• Birmingham — 40.21 inches (9.8 inches above average)
• Huntsville — 33.78 (4.7 above average)
• Tuscaloosa — 33.65 (5.18 above average)
• Montgomery — 29.61 (2.93 above average)
• Anniston — 29.51 (1.07 above average)
• Muscle Shoals — 29.2 (0.16 above average)
• Dothan — 28.67 (1.58 above average)
• Mobile — 27.89 (5.33 below average)

ON THIS DATE IN 2002: San Antonio, Texas, recorded 9.52 inches of rain to set a new record for its greatest rainfall for the entire month of July.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.