James Spann forecasts a drier, colder day for Alabama from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

RADAR CHECK: Rain continues just before daybreak in areas east and south of Birmingham; that rain will be ending soon, and we expect clearing from northwest to southeast this morning. Most communities will be under a sunny sky this afternoon, but the day will be breezy and sharply colder, with highs in the 40s over the northern third of the state. Temperatures across south Alabama will settle into the 50s. Tonight will feature a clear sky with temperatures falling into the 20s in most places.

The weekend will feature sunny days, clear nights and a warming trend. Expect highs in the 50s Saturday, followed by 60s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: It looks like the warmest week so far this year, with potential for highs exceeding 80 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday. In terms of rain chances, forecast confidence is very low with model inconsistency and differences. We will mention a chance of showers Tuesday, and a few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. It’s way too early to know whether severe storms will be an issue; the forecast will be better in coming days.

ENHANCED RISK BUST: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and all of us in the weather enterprise took a beating over the enhanced risk bust Thursday as severe storms were a no-show, but it isn’t the first time and won’t be the last. Predicting the future is hard; ask those who fill out March Madness brackets next month.

But being wrong with a severe weather forecast isn’t taken lightly. False alarms lead to the “cry wolf” syndrome, and nobody will pay attention. We have to get better.

Initial observations:

• The air aloft was a little too warm Thursday; we are too close to the strong upper ridge just southeast of Alabama — meaning, instability values were not nearly as high as models forecast Thursday afternoon.
• The upper trough to the northwest kept a positive tilt and played less of a role in diffluence aloft and upward atmospheric motion.
• Stronger winds aloft and dynamic forcing were a little too far north to play a big role here. Storm-relative helicity values just weren’t very impressive.
• Longtime readers know my saying, “All models are wrong; some are useful.” Mesoscale models didn’t perform very well Thursday.

We did our best to communicate that days like this happen often during our tornado season, which runs from November through May. There was much anxiety concerning the event forecast for Thursday in recent days for some reason, possibly related to the SPC forecasting a severe weather threat for Alabama seven days in advance.

But let’s all be thankful we didn’t have property damage, injuries and loss of life Thursday. Indeed, we “got through the day together just fine.”

ON THIS DATE IN 2008: An EF-3 tornado tore through Prattville and Millbrook, injuring more than 50 people. The tornado was down for 14 miles; an estimated 200 residential homes and 40 businesses were damaged or destroyed. Eleven other tornadoes touched down across central and south Alabama that day.

ON THIS DATE IN 2022: Three tornadoes touched down in Alabama, including an EF-1 that moved from near Lake Purdy to just south and east of Leeds.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.