NOTE: James Spann is on vacation this week, so Bill Murray and I will be bringing you the morning forecasts. We will be on a one-per-day schedule. Spann returns next Monday.

THE WORK WEEK: By this afternoon, drier air will move westward from Georgia and the Carolinas. While everyone will have a chance of rain, the eastern half of Alabama will see only a few isolated showers and storms, while the western half will see scattered to numerous showers and storms. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.

On Tuesday, we may see a depression form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and bring tropical rainfall to the western and northwestern Gulf Coast. Alabama will be dry with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Ridging will hold strong over the Southeast and will keep our weather calm for Juneteenth. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s under partly sunny skies.

On Thursday, we’ll continue the stretch of dry weather with a decent bit of sunshine. Highs could be in the upper 80s to the mid 90s, but those may be lowered by a few degrees if recent model trends continue.

With tropical moisture starting to flow westward on Friday, scattered showers and storms look possible over the southern third of Alabama, while we may see an isolated shower somewhere over the northern two-thirds. Highs look to be in the lower to mid 90s but may back down a couple of degrees in later forecasts.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: With deep tropical moisture in place throughout the weekend, scattered showers and storms will be possible over the southern half of the state both days, and a few isolated showers can’t be ruled out over the northern half. Highs both days will be in the lower to mid 90s.

TROPICS: A large area of disturbed weather is over Central America, the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico and the nearby waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. Within the next day or so, this system is expected to develop into a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek. This system will move slowly toward the western Gulf Coast.

Regardless of whether this system develops, expect several days of heavy rainfall across parts of southern Mexico and Central America, which could lead to life-threatening flooding. Heavy rainfall is also expected to reach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Gale warnings have been issued for parts of the Gulf already. There’s a 70% chance of formation within the next seven days.

Meanwhile, in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas in the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some development as it moves westward or west-northwestward; the system is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast by Thursday or Friday.

ON THIS DATE IN 2010: A tornado outbreak affected the Upper Midwest, particularly Minnesota, which experienced a state record of 48 tornadoes in a single day. Among the 74 tornadoes recorded across four states, 15 were classified as EF2 or stronger, including four EF4 tornadoes. They caused significant damage, including widespread destruction of homes and businesses, and resulted in three fatalities and many injuries.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.