SEVERE CLEAR: There’s nothing but sunshine across Alabama this afternoon; temperatures are mostly in the low 60s. The average high for Nov. 25 at Birmingham is 62. Tonight will be clear and not as cold as last night; most communities will see a low in the 40- to 45-degree range early Tuesday.

RAIN RETURNS: Clouds will increase Tuesday ahead of a storm system to the west; there is a risk of severe storms Tuesday night west of Alabama, from Louisiana north to Missouri. But the storms will weaken as they move into our state after midnight, and severe weather is not expected here. The main window for showers will come from midnight Tuesday night to noon Wednesday. Rain amounts should be around one-half inch, with isolated heavier totals. The high Tuesday will be in the upper 60s, but temperatures will likely fall into the 50s by mid to late afternoon Wednesday following the passage of the front.

SNOW WELL WEST AND NORTH OF ALABAMA: The same system that will bring rain to Alabama will bring lots of snow to the broad area from Colorado and Wyoming to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This could disrupt travel in many places.

THANKSGIVING DAY/BLACK FRIDAY: Dry, pleasant weather is the story for Thursday and Friday — sunny Thursday with a high in the low 60s, then partly sunny Friday with a high in the mid 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Another major storm system will be west of Alabama as the weekend begins; that will bring clouds into the state Saturday and periods of rain along with a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. For now the main window for rain will come from 6 p.m. Saturday until 9 a.m. Sunday, but that could change as we get closer to the weekend. We can’t rule out a few strong thunderstorms, but for now the thermodynamic environment doesn’t look especially favorable for severe storms. The high Saturday will be close to 70, but Sunday will be colder, with temperatures settling into the upper 40s and low 50s much of the day with a brisk northwest wind.

NEXT WEEK: New guidance this morning suggests we will have cool, dry weather for much of the week, with rain returning on Friday, Dec. 6. Confidence is not high with model inconsistency.

IRON BOWL: For the biggest game of the year in Alabama (2:30 p.m. kickoff Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium), the sky will be mostly cloudy with a kickoff temperature near 70 degrees. For now, we believe the rain arrives after the game is over, generally after 7 p.m. But, of course, the game is still five days away and things could change. We will keep you posted.

ON THIS DATE IN 1950: A storm called the “storm of the century” at the time hit the eastern part of the U.S., killing hundreds and causing millions of dollars in damages. New York City recorded a 94 mph wind gust and Bear Mountain, just north of the city, recorded a 140 mph gust. Record low temperatures were reported on the southern end of this storm in Tennessee and North Carolina. Pittsburgh saw 30 inches of snow, while Buffalo saw 50 degrees with 50 mph wind gusts. The official low in Birmingham Nov. 25, 1950, was 5 degrees, the coldest November temperature on record.

ON THIS DATE IN 1986: An F3 tornado with a path of 44 miles moved through parts of Coffee, Dale and Barbour counties in southeast Alabama. The twister developed in the New Brockton area and had an intermittent path to the northeast down Ariton, Elamville, Clio and then Clayton, where the tornado dissipated. There were three injuries in New Brockton and one church, three homes and two other buildings were destroyed. Near Ariton, an injury occurred in a mobile home. Two mobile homes were destroyed. Four homes, a business building, six mobile homes and several outbuildings were destroyed near Elamville.

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