Published On: 09.21.22 | 

By: James Spann

James Spann: Alabama gets cooler Friday; eyes on the tropics

James Spann forecasts another hot one for Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

MID 90s LATER TODAY: Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above average across Alabama today thanks to a large-scale upper high over the region; we project a high in the mid 90s with a good supply of hazy sunshine. The record high for Sept. 21 at Birmingham is 98, set in 2010.

Thursday will be dry with a high between 91 and 94 degrees, but a cold front will pass through late in the day (no rain is expected with the front) and Friday will be considerably cooler, with a high at or just over 80 degrees.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: After starting the day in the cool 50s, the high Saturday will be in the mid 80s with a sunny sky. For Sunday we expect a mix of sun and clouds, and we will mention the chance of a few showers Sunday afternoon and evening over the northern half of Alabama ahead of a cold front. Moisture will be very limited, and rain amounts will be light and spotty. The high Sunday will be in the low 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Most of the week looks dry at this point with very pleasant temperatures — highs around 80, with lows in the 50s.

TROPICS: Fiona is now a major, Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph. It is about 170 miles north/northwest of Grand Turk Island and will pass a little west of Bermuda late Thursday night and early Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late Thursday.Newly formed Tropical Storm Gaston is in the middle of the Atlantic in the higher latitudes and is no threat to land.

Most of our attention in coming days will be focused on the tropical wave (Invest 98L) a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization and will likely become a tropical depression within the next two or three days. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands by late today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week.

The system will likely be over Cuba or near the Yucatan channel early next week, possibly as a hurricane. At some point next week a northward turn is likely, but it is too early to know exactly when that turn happens. Global model ensembles suggest the highest threat of impact for now is over the Florida Peninsula (not the panhandle), but we stress there is no skill in forecasting the placement or intensity of a tropical cyclone more than seven days in advance.

Higher probabilities of impact are east of Alabama (we would be on the dry side), but this could easily change. There’s no need to change any beach trip plans; just watch for updates.FOOTBALL WEATHER: Expect delightful weather for high school games Friday night across Alabama; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling into the 60s.

Saturday, Auburn hosts Missouri at Jordan-Hare Stadium (11 a.m. kickoff); the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from near 77 at kickoff into the low 80s by the second half.

Alabama will host Vanderbilt at Bryant Denny Stadium Saturday evening (6:30 kickoff); the sky will be clear with temperatures falling from 81 degrees at kickoff into the low 70s by the final whistle.

ON THIS DATE IN 1938: One of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in history to affect the Northeast U.S. struck Long Island and Southern New England. This Category 3 Hurricane was traveling at 47 mph when it made landfall near Bellport, New York. This storm caused at least 600 deaths and left approximately 63,000 homeless.

ON THIS DATE IN 1989: Hurricane Hugo made landfall on Isle of Palms, South Carolina, as a Category 4 hurricane around midnight (technically landfall was just after midnight on Sept. 22). Hugo produced tremendous wind and storm surge damage along the coast and even produced hurricane-force wind gusts several hundred miles inland into western North Carolina. Hugo produced the highest storm tide heights ever recorded along the East Coast, around 20 feet in Bulls Bay, South Carolina, near Cape Romain. Total damage from this hurricane is estimated at $10 billion, including $5.2 billion in the United States. There were at least 39 fatalities during the post-storm recovery phase; more people died in South Carolina in the hurricane’s aftermath than during its passage.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.