TROPICAL MOISTURE: Not much overall change in Alabama’s weather today. Partly sunny, hot, humid weather continues with scattered showers and storms around this afternoon and early tonight. The high will be in the 92- to 95-degree range, and the chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in four. Just what you expect in late July.

REST OF THE WEEK: The upper ridge weakens a bit, and with instability values increasing we expect a general increase in the number of scattered showers and storms tomorrow through Friday. We still can’t promise rain for everyone, but most communities should see a decent downpour on one or more of these days. And, with the increase in clouds and showers, temperatures will back off a bit. In fact, some places won’t get out of the 80s. The NAM model is printing a high of only 86 for Birmingham tomorrow and Thursday. We will keep it close to 90 in the forecast.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: No real change. Mixed sun and clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms, highs around 90 Saturday and Sunday. Of course, in summer, there is no way of knowing in advance when and where storms pop up since they are random and scattered, but the best chance of one will come during the afternoon and evening. But with a weaker ridge and potential for a few small-scale boundaries around, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower.

NEXT WEEK: Partly sunny days, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms with highs in the low 90s. No sign of any triple-digit heat issues for the next 10-15 days.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.

AT THE BEACH: About seven to nine hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend, with an occasional passing thunderstorm just to make it interesting. Highs 87-90 on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. See a detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Here is a nice look at an early morning offshore storm at Fort Morgan, in a photo from @seshau.

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