James Spann: Potentially severe storms arrive in Alabama late tonight

James Spann: Band of strong storms enters Alabama tonight from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.
ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY: We project a high around 80 degrees again today; south winds will increase this afternoon, gusting at times to 30 mph ahead of a cold front. The sky will be mostly cloudy, although the sun should peek out at times. A shower is not totally out of the question during the day, but the main action comes late tonight.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE: The Storm Prediction Center has pulled the “enhanced risk” of severe weather down into the northwest corner of the state for tonight, around the Shoals. A “slight risk” extends down to Fort Payne, Birmingham and Demopolis, and a “marginal risk” is defined to Roanoke, Troy and Andalusia.
TIMING: A line of strong to severe storms will enter far northwest Alabama around 9-10 p.m.; the line should reach I-59 (Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden) around midnight-1 a.m., and then places like Anniston and Clanton by 2 a.m.
THREATS: The main threat will come from strong, potentially damaging straight-line winds. These winds could be strong enough to knock down some trees and power lines. An isolated, small tornado is possible as well, along with small hail.
RAIN: Rain amounts of one-half to three-quarters of an inch are expected, not enough for any flooding.
The storms should weaken as they move southeast of Birmingham during the pre-dawn hours, encountering a more stable air mass over central and south Alabama. Be sure you have a good way of hearing warnings late tonight in the event they are needed.
The sky becomes sunny tomorrow, and the day will be windy and much cooler, with a high in the 60- to 65-degree range.
FROST THURSDAY MORNING: We project lows in the mid 30s early Thursday with a clear sky and calm wind; frost should be fairly widespread over the northern half of the state. The traditionally colder spots will see another late-season freeze. Growers, beware. Then, we warm nicely during the day Thursday; with ample sunshine we project a high around 70 degrees.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels will begin to rise Friday along with an increase in clouds, but for now it looks like any showers will be pretty widely spaced. Friday’s high will be in the 67- to 70-degree range. Unfortunately, Saturday looks wet and cool as a cold front drops southward; some parts of north Alabama will hold in the 50s all day with periods of rain. This won’t be an “all day” kind of rain, but if you have something planned outdoors, understand it will rain at times.
Sunday will be much warmer as a warm front lifts north of the state; we reach the mid 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. A shower is possible Sunday, but they should be widely separated.
NEXT WEEK: Monday looks wet, with showers and thunderstorms likely as another cold front slices into the state; colder and drier air will return during midweek. There’s some hint in global models we could drop into the 30s again by Wednesday morning, April 11.
ON THIS DATE 44 YEARS AGO: Alabama was one of several states devastated by the “Super Outbreak,” as April 3-4, 1974, has become known. This date certainly represents one of the darkest times in Alabama weather history. During the late afternoon and evening of April 3, 1974, at least eight tornadoes, including four extremely intense and long-lived storms, brought death and extreme storm destruction to Alabama. Eighty-six people were killed, 949 were injured and damages exceeded $50 million. Sixteen counties in the northern part of the state were hit the hardest. The most intense tornado, an F5, tore through the heart of Guin, in Marion County, killing 23.
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