Published On: 10.06.18 | 

By: Scott Martin

Scott Martin: Alabama stays hot throughout the weekend; eyes on the tropics

Summertime refuses to leave for this weekend as we continue to see heat values normal for late August and not early October. And could we have some tropical mischief affecting our weather next week? We’ll talk about that a little later.

Skies started off mainly clear throughout the Southeast at 6 a.m., with only a few clouds floating overhead in central Alabama. Temperatures are relatively mild at this point, with mid-60s to the lower 70s across the state. Birmingham was at 72 degrees, while the cool spots were Fort Payne and Gadsden, both at 64 degrees.

TODAY’S WEATHER: We have a cold front stretching across the central parts of the country from the Great Lakes down into central Oklahoma and northern Texas, but the ridge holds in the east. That will continue to keep us hot throughout the day today, with partly to mostly clear skies and a very slight chance of an isolated shower or two in the northeastern quarter of the state. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s throughout central Alabama. Skies will be mostly clear overnight with lows dipping into the mid and upper 60s.

SUNDAY: Sunday’s weather will be a near repeat of today’s weather as a trough deepens in the west while the ridge continues to hold in the east. That means more hot temperatures with partly to mostly clear skies and just a very slight chance of a few isolated showers for the northern parts of the area. Highs remain in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Sunday evening will be fair with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

NEXT WEEK: The start of next week shows that trough continue to deepen in the west, but the high pressure lifts northeastward some, and this could lead to just a few more isolated to scattered showers across the area. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. But to the south, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, we are starting to see a tropical disturbance make the transition into the southern Gulf of Mexico. That could become a player in the forecast.

On Tuesday, the leading edge of the trough finally starts to edge toward the east, forcing the ridge more off to the east, but we’ll continue to have a slight chance of a few isolated showers, mainly over the southern half of the area. Highs will be backing off somewhat, staying in the 80s. We see Invest 91L, which now looks to be Tropical Storm Michael, approaching the central Gulf of Mexico, but it is still too early in the game for forecast strength and movement of this point. This is just one Global Forecast System model run.

Wednesday, a cold front moves into the eastern parts of the country along with our tropical system moving onshore over the big bend area of the Florida panhandle. This will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage to the area. Highs will be in the lower to mid-80s.

The cold front will be knocking on our door just to our west on Thursday, forcing the movement of the tropical system on up into the Virginias and North Carolina, where they do not need any more rain for a while. On this run, we’ll be well on the dry side. But at this point, we just do not know where and if this tropical system will affect the Southeast. For now we’ll go with a chance of scattered showers and storms, with highs in the upper 70s to the mid-80s.

Friday looks to be an outstanding day across central Alabama, with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

LONG TERM: Looking at the model trends on high and low temperatures for Birmingham through the next 16 days, we see that summertime will finally pack its bags and leave us until 2019 as highs dip down into the 60s and 70s, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Leslie is over the open Atlantic. She is no threat to land and is expected to accelerate off to the east, staying away from the U.S.

The story for us is the disturbance just south of the Yucatan Peninsula that is now given a 90 percent chance of developing into a depression or storm within the next five days. Now known as Invest 91L, it will become Michael if it becomes more organized and forms into a tropical storm. Model data shows that it will move northward into the northern Gulf of Mexico and turn northeast across the panhandle of Florida and into southern Georgia next week. It is still too early for a deterministic forecast, but we’ll definitely watch this throughout the weekend. Conditions will become more favorable for development and we could see a depression form within the next 48 to 72 hours, if not sooner.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.