James Spann forecasts a stormy night ahead for Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

ACTIVE 24 HOURS AHEAD: The weather is clear and cold across Alabama early this morning, with temperatures mostly in the 40s; we are seeing some 30s over the eastern counties. Clouds will increase today with a high between 67 and 71 degrees, and some rain could break out this afternoon as moisture surges northward.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across Alabama tonight ahead of a dynamic weather system. The Storm Prediction Center has defined an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for the far western counties of the state. There is a slight risk (level 2) as far east as Guntersville, Prattville and Brewton, and a marginal risk (level 1) down to Opelika and Enterprise.The southeast corner of the state (Dothan, Ozark, etc.) has a marginal risk (level 1) defined for 6 to 10 a.m. Wednesday.

TIMING: A few severe storms are possible across far west Alabama as early as 4-8 p.m.; initially the concern is from hail with little surface-based instability. The core threat will come from 10 p.m. until 4 a.m. The severe weather threat will wind down after 4 a.m. as the storms move into a more stable air mass.

THREATS: Storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes. The main tornado threat is over the western half of the state in the enhanced and slight risk areas. We believe the highest tornado probabilities will be along and south of I-20, and west of I-65; this is where the best combination of shear and instability will be found.

WIND: Away from thunderstorms, pressure gradient winds will average 15-25 mph tonight, with potential for gusts to 40 mph in spots.

RAIN: Amounts of 1-2 inches are likely; some heavier totals are possible across southwest Alabama, where a flash flood watch has been issued.

BE PREPARED: For most of Alabama, the core threat will come during the late night and early morning, meaning you have to have a reliable way of getting warnings if they are needed. The best way is a NOAA Weather Radio; every home and business needs one. Be sure Wireless Emergency Alerts are enabled on your phone and have the free ABC 33/40 weather app installed.

Know the safe place in your home and have helmets for everyone there. If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter, or a business open 24/7 that can provide shelter, and also know the quickest way to get there. Have transportation available.

NOT SCARED: Events like this are very common in Alabama in November and December; there is no need to be anxious or worried. Just be prepared, get the warnings and we will get through the night fine together. Don’t let the rogue TikTok and YouTube accounts scare you. They use fear to drive subscriber counts, which is a horrible thing to do.

Look for a breezy and much cooler day Wednesday with temperatures falling through the 50s. The sky will gradually clear. We drop into the 27- to 32-degree range across north and central Alabama by early Thursday morning. The weather will be dry Thursday and Friday with a good supply of sunshine both days; the high will be in the 50s Thursday, followed by 60s Friday.

THE WEEKEND: Showers are possible Saturday as a surface front pushes into the state. There will be no risk of severe storms and probably very little thunder — not a washout at all, but be ready for some rain at times if you have an event outdoors. The high Saturday will be between 65 and 70 degrees. Sunday’s forecast is a low-confidence one due to model inconsistency, but the latest guidance suggests the front will stall out, meaning some risk of rain will continue through Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: We will mention a chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday with a cold front passing through, followed by cooler, drier air over the latter half of the week. Temperatures will reach the low 70s Monday and Tuesday, followed by low 60s Wednesday, and 50s Thursday and Friday.ON THIS DATE IN 1991: A tornado struck southeast Springfield, Missouri, causing F4 damage. Shortly after touchdown, the tornado reached F3 intensity approximately 3 miles north of the town of Nixa. While crossing a highway, the tornado picked up a truck and dropped it onto a frontage road, killing one passenger and injuring 10 others. The tornado intensified to F4 strength as it moved through the Woodbridge and Natural Bridge Estates subdivisions, where 15 homes were destroyed. Altogether, two people were killed and 64 others were injured.

ON THIS DATE IN 2016: Eleven tornadoes touched down across Alabama. One EF2 moved just under 10 miles from near Arley to Helicon in Winston County and ended 2 miles over the Cullman County line. The National Weather Service survey determined the estimated maximum winds were near 130 mph.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.