RADAR CHECK: Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase across Alabama this afternoon thanks to an upper low and surface low just to the west. Heavier storms are producing small hail and gusty winds as they move northward. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms east and south of a line from Ashland to Greenville to Geneva. A marginal risk (level 1) extends as far north as Winfield, Cullman and Centre.

A brief, isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out through the evening but isn’t likely. The higher tornado probabilities are over south Georgia, where an enhanced risk (level 3) is up. Storms will weaken after sunset, and we expect only isolated showers tonight.

A wind advisory is in effect for much of Alabama through the evening; gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) could gust to 40 mph in spots.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We will maintain the chance of scattered showers Friday, but much of the day will be dry. The sky will remain mostly cloudy with highs generally in the upper 60s and low 70s. Saturday looks warm and dry for much of the state, with a high in the low 80s. The exception is the southwest corner of the state, where rain is possible across Mobile and Baldwin counties.

A cold front will bring showers statewide after midnight Saturday night into Sunday. A few strong storms are possible initially over the northwest corner of the state, but they should be weakening; for now, severe storms are not expected. The main window for rain with this feature will come from about 3 a.m. to 3 p.m. Sunday. Highs will remain between 67 and 74 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: New global model data shows rain-free weather for the state pretty much all of next week, with sunny days and fair nights. Highs will be in the 70s Monday and Tuesday, followed by low to mid 80s over the latter half of the week.ON THIS DATE IN 1999: A 2-mile-wide area of wind-driven hail pounded residences and farm equipment for about a 5-mile stretch at least as far as State Highway 158 in west Texas near Midland and Odessa. Hail grew to about golf-ball size and winds peaked at approximately 80 mph. The wind-driven hail broke windows in houses and blasted paint off the wooden siding.

ON THIS DATE IN 2006: An F2 tornado hit Iowa City, Iowa, and trekked across southeastern parts of the University of Iowa campus, doing more than $15 million damage, hurting 30 people and damaging or destroying 1,051 buildings.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.