James Spann forecasts a dry Thursday before heavy rains return Friday from Alabama News Center on Vimeo.

DRY THURSDAY: With a partly sunny sky, we expect highs today in the mid to upper 70s across Alabama, about 10 degrees above average for early March. Clouds will increase tonight as moisture levels rise.

RAIN, STORMS RETURN: Showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon, becoming widespread Friday night into early Saturday morning. The rain could be heavy at times; National Weather Service Birmingham has introduced a flash flood watch for the counties in its county warning area across the central part of the state. Rain amounts of 1-3 inches are likely; isolated totals to 4 inches are possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has defined a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms in its outlook valid through 6 a.m. Saturday for areas south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Wetumpka to Union Springs. A marginal risk (level 1) is up for most of the rest of the state.

A severe weather risk is also defined for Saturday morning (after 6 a.m.) for the southeast counties.

This is a somewhat conditional risk; surface-based instability is expected to be very limited, and mainly across the southern quarter of the state. If severe thunderstorms do develop, the main threat will come from strong, gusty winds, but a brief, isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out.

The heaviest rain and main threat for stronger thunderstorms will come from 9 p.m. Friday through 9 a.m. Saturday.

Rain will end from the west by mid to late morning Saturday, and by Saturday afternoon most of the state will be dry, but clouds will linger. The highs Friday and Saturday will be near 70 degrees.

Cooler, drier air rolls into the Deep South Saturday night, and Sunday will be sunny and cool, with highs between 55 and 65 degrees across Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: At this point much of the week looks dry. Temperatures will drop into the 30s Monday morning over the northern two-thirds of the state, and some of the colder spots could see a light freeze. A warming trend is ahead for the rest of the week, with temperatures reaching the 70s Tuesday through Friday.

The next chance of rain most likely will be at some point over the following weekend, March 15-16.

ON THIS DATE IN 1997: The worst was finally over for states hit hard by the flooding Ohio River. The river crested on March 6 at Louisville, Kentucky, 15 feet above flood stage, after topping out at nearly 13 feet at Cincinnati, Ohio, and more than 7 feet at Huntington, West Virginia.

ON THIS DATE IN 2018: A teacher was struck by lightning outside an Ocean County, New Jersey, middle school during a thundersnow event.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.