SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE ON LAURA AND MARCO: We have a unique one-two punch coming up for Louisiana and the Gulf Coast in coming days. Marco is now expected to approach Southeast Louisiana as a hurricane on Monday, followed by Laura as a hurricane on Wednesday on the Central Louisiana coast.

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MARCO: NHC has made significant changes to the forecast of Marco; the track has been adjusted significantly to the east based on new model output.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Intracoastal City Louisiana eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Alabama Gulf Coast.

Now with winds of 65 mph, Marco has been passing through the Yucatan Channel this afternoon, and is entering the far southern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to reach hurricane strength tonight. NHC is now expecting Marco to be a category one hurricane at the time of landfall on the Louisiana coast Monday.

LAURA: Tropical Storm Laura is now just west of Puerto Rico with winds of 50 mph. It will pass over Hispaniola tonight, and then move over Cuba Monday. The interaction with land will prevent the system from growing stronger, but it should strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico into a hurricane by Monday night.

The new NHC track takes Laura to the Louisiana coast as a category one hurricane during the day Wednesday, followed by weakening as it moves inland. There is a chance the hurricane could be stronger at the time of landfall than currently forecast.

We should note a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas.

CENTRAL GULF COAST: The area from Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores east to Panama City Beach will be on the wet, east side of both Marco and Laura with an onshore flow. This means unsettled weather during the week ahead.

If I had a beach trip planned for this area, I would not hesitate to go. But, that is my decision, and different people go to the beach for different reasons. If you are headed to the coast to swim in the ocean, or enjoy completely sunny days, it won’t be your week. But as I often say, a rainy day at the beach beats a sunny day in most other places.

• Dangerous rip currents are likely tomorrow through at least Thursday. Expect double red flags.
• There will be periods of heavy rain Monday through Wednesday. But understand the rain won’t be continuous, and you will see the sun at times. It is too early to determine if the rain will be heavy enough for major flooding issues.
• A few isolated waterspouts or tornadoes will be possible Monday due to Marco, and again Wednesday as Laura passes well to the west.
• Gradient winds, could exceed 40 mph Monday as Marco passes to the west over Louisiana. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Alabama Gulf Coast for this reason.

INLAND ALABAMA: Marco is a fairly compact storm, and most of the serious impact will to the west Monday. Laura will pull deep tropical moisture into the state by Wednesday and Thursday with enhanced rain chances likely both days. Still too early to determine if the inland parts of Alabama will have a flooding threat, or some potential for isolated tornadoes. We will have much better clarity by tomorrow night.

UNCERTAINTY: It is important to note there is considerable model spread/instability and associated uncertainty in the forecast for both Marco and Laura. NHC notes it’s entirely possible that the volatile shifts seen in the models could continue.

No, they won’t merge into some kind of super duper mega storm, but there could be some interaction between the two that makes the forecast a bit more complicated. Could be there be some upwelling from Marco that impacts Laura? Could the Fujiwhara effect come into play? NHC suggests this is not especially likely at this point.

So, as always, watch for forecast changes as the tropical twins get closer to the coast in coming days. I should caution you that everybody with a Facebook account becomes a tropical meteorologist during times like this. Stick with good sources for information and avoid the armchair know-it-alls. My friend Ken Graham (NHC director) and his team are very good at what they do. “Gut feelings” from the know-it-alls are not good sources.

Stay tuned for more updates through the rest of the weekend!

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.com.