James Spann: Another sunny day for Alabama; showers, storms return Wednesday
James Spann forecasts more active weather ahead for Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.
COLD START: Here are some temperatures across Alabama just before sunrise:
- Decatur — 29
- Hueytown — 31
- Meridianville — 31
- Haleyville — 31
- Demopolis — 32
- Fort Payne — 32
- Weaver — 32
- Pell City — 32
- Huntsville — 33
- Heflin — 33
- Good Hope — 33
- Prattville — 33
- Sylacauga — 33
- Bessemer — 33
- Gadsden — 34
- Scottsboro — 34
- Tuscaloosa — 35
- Montgomery — 35
- Northport — 35
- Anniston — 37
- Black Creek — 37
- Cullman — 39
- Mobile — 43
- Birmingham — 43
Today will be mostly sunny with a high between 67 and 70 degrees. Clouds will increase tonight.
SHOWERS, STORMS RETURN: Wednesday will be a cloudy day with a high in the low 70s; showers and storms will likely begin to develop by afternoon ahead of a cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has identified a low-end, marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for much of north and central Alabama.
A few storms late Wednesday afternoon and evening could produce small hail and strong, gusty winds, but for now the overall severe weather threat looks pretty low, with the highest shear well removed from the highest instability (which is not especially high anyway). Rain amounts of one-half to 1 inch look likely for most communities.
THANKSGIVING/FRIDAY: The surface front will become stationary across central Alabama Thursday morning, and at this point it looks like the best chance of showers on Thanksgiving Day will come over the southern half of the state. The day will be cloudy and mild with a high in the 70s. On Friday, a wave forms along the front and rain will increase statewide by afternoon. We will reach the mid 70s Friday, about 10 degrees above average for late November in Alabama.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The wave will move northeast of the state and the front gets a nudge southward again Saturday. This could very well mean the best chance of rain Saturday will be over the southern half of the state, but we will continue to mention a few periods of rain statewide until we get better clarity. It won’t rain all day Saturday and we don’t expect any severe weather issues. The high will be in the 60s over north Alabama, with 70s for the southern counties.
Sunday another wave forms on the front and rain will increase statewide. The GFS (American global model) suggests it will be a very cool, rainy day with temperatures only in the 50s over north Alabama. But the ECMWF (European global model) hints we could get in the warm sector by Sunday night with a chance of strong to severe storms. We will have a much better handle on the weekend situation once we get past the storms Wednesday night, but one way or another Sunday is looking very wet.
NEXT WEEK: The coldest air so far this season will roll into Alabama next week, with highs only in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. There is some signal from models that a surface low could form in the northern Gulf at midweek with potential for some cold rain, followed by a deep upper low that might squeeze out a snow flake somewhere over north Alabama late in the week. Of course, this is nothing but voodoo right now. The big message for next week is the cold air.
IRON BOWL: The biggest game of the year in Alabama kicks off at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa Saturday at 2:30. The sky will be cloudy; temperatures will be in the 65- to 70-degree range during the game. We will continue to mention a chance of showers even though models for the moment are hinting the best chance of rain will be south of Tuscaloosa, over the southern half of the state. If rain does fall, for the moment we aren’t expecting anything especially heavy, and no severe storms are expected.
TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms east of its center as it merges with a frontal system. By late Wednesday or Thursday the system could become separated from the front, allowing it to possibly develop some subtropical characteristics later this week while it meanders over the central Atlantic. It won’t be a threat to the U.S., and the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet. The hurricane season ends in six days.
ON THIS DATE IN 2001: A total of 24 tornadoes touched down across Alabama; two people were killed in southern Lamar County in west Alabama and two near Sand Rock in Cherokee County. The strongest tornado of the day was an F4 that moved through parts of northern Blount and Etowah counties.
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