James Spann forecasts a dry, warm Tuesday for Alabama with severe storms Wednesday from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.

WARMER TODAY: Look for a high around 80 degrees this afternoon with a partially sunny sky. Low 80s are likely Wednesday as the warming trend continues, but a significant severe weather threat is ahead for Alabama Wednesday night.

This system will feature a very high level of kinematic energy with strong wind fields at all levels, but thankfully there is little surface-based instability. Still, the dynamics will bring potential for a high-impact event to the state.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the threat levels for Alabama with this event. We now have a moderate risk (level 4 of 5) over much of west Alabama, with an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for the rest of the state.TIMING: A line of severe storms will likely push into the northwest corner of the state around 6-7 p.m. Wednesday. It will be near I-59 (Gadsden, Birmingham and Tuscaloosa) by around 11 p.m. and will move into the rest of east Alabama after midnight.

THREATS: There is potential for relatively widespread wind damage with the line of storms as it passes through, with winds possibly gusting to 65 mph or higher in many places. Also, a few tornadoes could spin up within the line. Some hail is possible, but that isn’t a major threat with this type of system.

GRADIENT WIND: It is important to note that gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) Wednesday afternoon and evening could gust as high as 40-50 mph. This in itself will bring potential for some downed trees and power outages.

RAIN: Amounts of 1-2 inches are likely for most places and some flooding is possible. We don’t expect as much rain as we experienced last week, however (some places saw up to 5 inches of rain with that event).

CALL TO ACTION: This has potential to be a high-end wind event for much of Alabama; plan for power outages. Secure loose objects that might go flying away with strong winds. Pay close attention to severe thunderstorm warnings Wednesday night; if you live in a mobile home I would consider treating a severe thunderstorm warning like a tornado warning and be in a community shelter or business that is open and available as a shelter. Be sure you have two reliable ways of hearing warnings (never a siren) — a NOAA Weather Radio and your phone — and be sure emergency alerts are enabled on your phone. Have the free ABC 33/40 weather app installed.

The sky will clear during the day Thursday as dry air returns to the state; the high Thursday will be around 70 degrees.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Look for mostly sunny days and fair nights Friday through Sunday. The high will be in the upper 60s Friday and mostly in the low 70s over the weekend. There will be a chance of showers near the Gulf Coast Saturday as a disturbance moves through the northern Gulf, but most of the state will be dry.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry and mild, but rain and storms will return to the state Tuesday. There is evidence that strong to severe storms are possible with this system, but it is way too early to be specific. The latter half of the week looks dry for now.

ON THIS DATE IN 1942: A slow-moving low-pressure system brought 11.5 inches of snow to the nation’s capital. It still stands as the highest March snowfall on record in Washington, D.C., on a single calendar day. Baltimore, Maryland, recorded an imposing total of 21.9 inches of snow on the same day. On the flip side, eight days later, the temperature in D.C. soared to 92 degrees on April 6, 1942, and it remains the highest temperature on record for April 6.

ON THIS DATE IN 1991: A short-lived F1 tornado struck Munford, where it destroyed several mobile homes, killing five people, four of them in one family.

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