MARVELOUS MONDAY: With a sunny sky, temperatures are mostly in the 60s across Alabama this afternoon. The sky will remain mostly clear tonight with a low between 35 and 45 degrees for most communities.

Tuesday will be partly sunny and warmer, with a high close to 70 degrees.

A surface front will push a band of showers and storms into the state after midnight Tuesday night; rain remains possible at times during the day Wednesday as the front becomes nearly stationary over the region. The weather will stay mild, with highs in the low 70s.

THURSDAY: Conditions will favor strong to severe thunderstorms across Alabama, especially during the afternoon and evening. Global models suggest a decent degree of surface-based instability along with strong wind fields, but large differences exist in the placement of a surface low Thursday and its forecast evolution. The Storm Prediction Center has all of Alabama in a severe weather risk Thursday, but there are still many questions about how the small-scale features will play out, which will determine the magnitude of the event and the specific threats.

For now, it looks like the main window for strong to severe thunderstorms will come from about 1 Thursday afternoon until midnight Thursday night.

Days like this are common in Alabama this time of the year; our tornado season runs from November through May. There is no need to be anxious, but you need to be weather aware Thursday in the event we do have severe storm formation. Have a reliable way of hearing warnings, and a good plan. We will get through the day together just fine.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather turns sharply colder Friday with a clearing sky; highs will be in the 40s and 50s with a brisk north wind. Temperatures will drop into the 20s Saturday morning. But the rest of the weekend will feature a warming trend with sunny days and clear nights. The high Saturday will be between 53 and 60 degrees, and most communities will be in the 60s by Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Dry, mild weather is the story Monday and Tuesday; global models suggest rain returns in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. It’s too early to know whether severe storms will be an issue.

ON THIS DATE IN 1899: One of the coldest air masses ever observed in the U.S. made it all the way to the Gulf Coast. It was 7 degrees in New Orleans and Pensacola. Mobile dropped to a numbing 1 below zero. The reading of 2 below zero at Tallahassee still is Florida’s coldest reading ever. At the old Fountain Heights weather office in Birmingham, the official low on that frigid morning was 10 below zero.

ON THIS DATE IN 1952: At least three tornadoes touched down in Alabama. One estimated F3 tornado moved through the northern suburbs of Birmingham. Nine homes and 17 buildings were destroyed, while 55 homes and 54 other buildings were damaged. The tornado scattered debris for hundreds of yards. There were 26 injuries. The National Weather Service in Birmingham listed the path of the tornado as being 15 miles.

Another estimated F3 moved northeastward along the Fayette-Tuscaloosa county line; one person was killed. In New Lexington, two homes were destroyed and seven others were damaged. Eight more homes were damaged in Fayette County. The third tornado was in Cullman County near Garden City.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.