CALM WEATHER PATTERN: Alabama’s weather will be warm and dry today, with a high between 82 and 86 degrees for most communities. The average high for Birmingham on Oct. 2 is 81. Most of the state will stay dry Thursday, although a few scattered showers are possible near the coast.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We will bring in a risk of scattered showers statewide on Friday, but nothing really widespread or heavy. The weekend will be mostly rain-free, with only a few showers near the coast. The weather stays warm, with highs in the mid 80s in most places. Days will be partly sunny and nights will be fair. Morning lows will be in the 60s.

NEXT WEEK: The quiet October weather pattern continues. Most of the week will be rain-free; cooler air arrives Tuesday following the passage of a dry cold front. After Monday, highs will be in the mid to upper 70s over the northern half of the state, with lows in the 50s. The high will be close to 80 over south Alabama.

TROPICS: Hurricane Kirk is in the eastern Atlantic with winds of 80 mph; it becomes a major hurricane Thursday. Thankfully Kirk will turn north, and then northeast over the open Atlantic. It is no threat to land.

A tropical wave behind Kirk (Invest 91L) will likely become a tropical storm soon, but it will follow the same path and will stay far from land.

Closer to home, a broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

The National Hurricane Center continues to give it a 40% chance of development over the next seven days. Global models continue to suggest this will be mostly a rainmaker for the Florida Peninsula (not the panhandle) at some point next week, staying well to the south of the central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach). But, of course, we will watch developments closely.RACE WEEKEND: A few spotty showers are possible Friday at Talladega, but the weather will be dry Saturday and Sunday with a good supply of sunshine both days. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, lows in the 60s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: It will be dry and pleasant for the high school games Friday night; temperatures will fall through the 70s.

Saturday, UAB will host Tulane at Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham (noon kickoff). The sky will be mostly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Auburn will be on the road at Georgia (2:30 p.m. CT kickoff). The sky will be sunny with temperatures in the low 80s through most of the game.

Alabama travels to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt (3:15 p.m. CT kickoff). Expect a sunny sky with temperatures falling from near 85 degrees at kickoff to near 80 by the final whistle.

ON THIS DATE IN 1898: A Category 4 hurricane made landfall in Georgia, the most recent major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane to make landfall in Georgia.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.