NICE WARM-UP: Temperatures are well in the 60s across Alabama this afternoon after a cold, frosty start. We stay well above freezing tonight with a low between 45 and 50 for most places.

Clouds increase tomorrow as moisture levels begin to rise; the high will be close to 70 degrees.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY: A deep surface low will be over the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a trailing cold front down into the Deep South. The new model runs (12Z) show more CAPE (instability); that along with good dynamic forcing suggest strong to severe storms are a good possibility by the afternoon hours.

The low level jet (about 5,000 feet off the ground) will exceed 50 knots, and storm relative helicity values in the lowest one kilometer of the atmosphere are pretty robust, suggesting a few rotating updrafts are possible.

TIMING: Strong to severe storms could enter Northwest Alabama by 10:00-11:00 a.m. Thursday; the core threat will come later, from 12:00 noon until 6:00 p.m.

PLACEMENT: SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather defined for about the northern two-thirds of the state, with a “marginal risk” down to the Florida line.

MODES: The primary threat will come from damaging straight line winds, but an isolated tornado or two is certainly possible. Some hail is also likely in the stronger storms.

RAIN: Amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely, not enough for significant flooding issues.

FRIDAY: Sunshine returns Friday; the day begins with a low in the mid to upper 30s, and some light frost is very possible in scattered spots. The high Friday will be in the mid 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The GFS is coming around the the Euro solution concerning our weather Saturday… we will make it a dry forecast with a high in the low 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. Then, the next wave will bring wet weather back to the state Sunday. Periods of rain are likely throughout the day, along with a few thunderstorms. Temperatures hold in the 60s due to the clouds and rain; severe storms are not expected for now.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather looks rain-free Monday through Wednesday, but another robust system will bring the chance of strong storms back to the state on Thursday (March 31)… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Dry weather tomorrow, but clouds will increase during the day, and a few showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday. Then, Friday should feature a good supply of sunshine, but more rain arrives over the weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: We are offering basic SKYWARN training at several locations across North/Central Alabama in March, followed by the big event, Storm Spotter Xtreme on Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!

We will be in Tuscaloosa at the River Market this evening at 6:30!

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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For more weather news and information from James Spann and his weather team, visit Alabama WX.