Click here to view or print the entire monthly report compliments of the ACRE Corporate Cabinet.

Sales: According to the Tuscaloosa MLS, Tuscaloosa-area residential sales totaled 181 units during November, up 41.4 percent from the same period last year. Year-to-date sales of 2,156 units represent a 17.6 percent rise from the same period last year. Two more resources to review: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.

For all of the Tuscaloosa area’s housing data, click here. 

Year-to-date residential sales in Tuscaloosa during November rose 18 percent over last year.

Forecast: November results were 32 units or 21 percent below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s monthly forecast. ACRE’s year-to-date sales forecast through November projected 2,114 closed transactions, while the actual sales were 2,275 units, a favorable difference of 7.6 percent.

Supply: Tuscaloosa October housing inventory totaled 1,118 units, a decrease of 7 percent from November 2015. November inventory dipped by 3 percent compared to October. Historical data indicate that November inventory on average (2011-15) decreases from October by 4.7 percent. Inventory has now declined 42.2 percent from the November peak (1,934 units) reached in 2007.

Seeking balance: The inventory-to-sales ratio declined 34.2 percent year-over-year during November to 6.2 months. Restated, at the November sales pace, it would take 6.2 months to absorb the current inventory for sale. The market equilibrium (balance between supply and demand on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) is considered to be approximately 6 months during November.

Demand: November residential sales were 6.5 percent above the prior month. The increase contrasts with seasonal buying patterns and historical data indicating that November sales on average (2011-15) decrease from October by 10.4 percent. Existing single-family home sales accounted for 80 percent of total sales (down from 83 percent in November 2015), while 9 percent were new home sales (up from 8 percent) and 11 percent were condo buyers (up from 9 percent).

Pricing: The Tuscaloosa median sales price in November was $158,000, an increase of 4.5 percent compared to November 2015. The median sales price was down 3.5 percent from October’s price. Historical data (2011-15) indicate that the median sales price in November typically increases from October by 0.6 percent. It should be noted that differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. Consult with a real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

Industry perspective: “The HPSI (home purchase sentiment index) fell in October for the third straight month from its record high in July, reaching the lowest level since March. Recent erosion in sentiment likely reflects, in part, enhanced uncertainty facing consumers today,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Since July, more consumers, on net, have steadily expected mortgage rates to rise and home price appreciation to moderate. Furthermore, consumers’ perception of their income over the past year deteriorated sharply in October to the worst showing since early 2013, weighing on the index. However, this component of the HPSI is volatile from month to month, and the firming trend in wage gains from the October jobs report, if sustained, may foreshadow an improving view in the near future.”

Click here to generate more graphs from the Tuscaloosa November Housing Report, including Total Sales, Average Sales Price, Days on the Market, Total Inventory and Months of Supply. 

The Tuscaloosa Residential Monthly Report is developed in conjunction with the Tuscaloosa Association of Realtors to better serve West Alabama consumers.